Month: November 2016

EU-Ukraine: simply in limbo

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sam_5578

The atmosphere at the EU-Ukraine Summit press-conference was between dull and gloomy, the presidents looked mostly down in their papers, the regular wooden language clichés on democracy and solidarity were distributed generously, probably in attempt to disguise a poor outcome.
President Petro Poroshenko goes back home almost empty handed: one can’t consider 15 million euro for an anti-corruption project and 104 euro for public administration as a big deal for a 43 million strong population of Ukraine (for comparison Georgia received at donor’s conference one billion euro).
However the financial aid for Ukraine is not on the table for the EU in crisis and serious economic problems of Mediterranean member-states criticizing austerity policy.
The visa-free regime would be a absolute maximum the EU can grant to Ukraine for good ‘home-work’ in promotion of reforms and good governance. But it is only a theory.
In spite of promises of the EU’ presidents #Tusk and #Juncker to conclude the issue by the end of the year, it is a clear understanding at the institutional back-stage that granting visa-free for 43 millions Ukrainians will mean a opulent gift to Eurosceptics.
Neither at the moment of Maidan revolution, no today the EU has a plan of an integration of such a big country into the block.
The galloping enlargement policy, neglecting Copenhagen criteria, already bore bitter fruit: the UK voted #Brexit largely in disagreement of a perspective of authoritarian Turkey to join the EU.
The negative outcome of the Dutch referendum on Association agreement with Ukraine  showed the state of mind in one of the key countries of the Union, awaiting the general elections in March. The agreement of visa-free to Ukrainians, notorious for its endemic corruption with the similar to Nigeria index, would push the votes in democratic countries flee the Union, becoming just an assembly of countries based on geographic, but not values orientated principle.
Giving a eulogy to European Parliament’s president Socialist Martin Schulz, President Poroshenko just aggravated a sentiment of a foul game, going on
behind closed doors of European institutions making arrangement with third parties without the EU cititzens’ consent. It is up to the European Parliament to give an approval to visa liberalization until the end of this year,  and certainly  it’s president has influence to exercise.
Taking into consideration Schulz’ decision to leave the EP, the visa-free for Ukrainians might be his last contribution to what he calls ‘the biggest civilization project of the past centuries’. A helping hand to president Poroshenko, and also to Eurosceptics Geet Wilders and Marine Le Pen in coming elections in The Netherlands and France, not least Schulz’ compatriot AfD’s Frauke Petry, whose stakes are also at raise.
Surely it is possible to liberalize the visa regime for Ukrainians until the end of this year, in a certain way it will even facilitate the prediction of the national elections outcome next year. No polls needed. Anyway they didn’t show to be accurate so far.

#Fotyga: propaganda toxic substance

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fotyga-ep

The MEP Anna Fotyga’s report on ”Russian and Islamist propaganda” debated in European Parliament is one of the most surrealistic documents produced by an assembly in modern history. Even from a first glance it looks exotic resembling a hybrid of a Nile crocodile and a red-tailored hawk – a monster from Middle Ages artist Jeroen Bosch paintings of Hell.

Certainly it is reflecting a personal animosity of Ms Fotyga – a former Polish #Kaczyński Foreign affairs minister – towards Kremlin, degrading Russian mass media undertakings to Islamic state information warfare against the West.

One can question a rational behind the choice of the rapporteur who has not been able to abandon Cold War modality in 25 years after the fall of Berlin Wall,
confusing Russia with the USSR, as if still an existing entity along with the Islamic state.

Knowing the slow pace of the EU institutions one can guess that the idea of the report was conceived in a firm believe of the continuation of the US Democrat’s policy of sanctioning Russia. Within a new political situation, when president elect has declared Russia as a ‘partner’, the Fotyga’s report looks not only dramatically outdated, but also phantasmagoria.

An obsessive wish to degrade Russia’s mass-media, namely #RussaTodayTV to propaganda machine of the Islamic state (IS) deprived the report of substance, because neither problems of the communication streams from Russia or from IS to the EU was properly addressed.
One could say that it would have been a regular piece of ‘brining sand to beach’ institutional work, if not unforeseen dangerous by effects.
Today the US election results  ensuring a change in the Western foreign policy is a key factor, making Fotyga’s report outdated, however it is more than about looks.
The presidential elections process in France indicated two major favorites: the Republican Francois Fillion and Front National Marine Le Pen – both declaring Russia as a natural partner of France. The inevitable upcoming change of the foreign policy course of the founding member state of the EU, will have a profound influence on the EU-Russia relations confronting the East European countries with a necessity to abandon chronic Cold War modus vivendi.
The reluctance to change attitude vis-à-vis Russia would create additional divides in relations between EU old and new member states, already existing in the issues of migration.The rejection of Poland to take fair share of migrants from Italy and Greece completed with the rejection of accepting a pragmatic approach towards Kremlin might be too much for the Union to bear: these cracks will start a tectonic shift between Eastern (Vicegrad group) and Western Europe,signifying its end of the status quo EU27+UK earlier than #Brexit happens.
Turning to a really burning issue of finding an anti-dot for the perilous ideology of Islamic state, Fotyga reports does not break through the standard kit of wooden language formula, already proven to be pretty useless in protecting youth from terrorist recruiters. Subsequently it would make sense to convey the preparation of such a report to a representative of a country having the most extensive experience with the IS recruiting victims – Belgium.
Concluding, one can propose two separate reports on effects of communications, offering IS to a Belgium politician and experts, and to a Latvian, where the biggest Russian community in Europe lives, to relay on first hand experience and advice.
However ending shameful practise of Russian non-citizens in the EU, namely in Estonia and Latvia would be at most effective promotion for the European values without any ‘counter-propaganda’ strategies to invent. It is hardly makes sense to invest money in development of virtual projects, describing wonders of Europe to the EU Russians who continue stateless existence long after the collapse of the USSR.
Finally, the simple arithmetic shows the malaise of the European politicians voting the controversial Fotyga’s report converted into a resolution: 304 MEPs for, 179 against, 208 (!) abstentions.
‘EU strategic communication to counteract propaganda against it by third parties’ drafted by MEP Fotyga passed, the toxic spilled, collateral damages to be estimated later.

 

EU-Turkey: Adieu, membership!

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juncker-erdogan

A long journey of Turkey to the European Union clearly came to a halt
– in the European Parliament’s plenary there were just a few MEPs to
suggest the accession process should continue in spite of the dramatic
developments in the candidate country after the failed coup d’état.

The overwhelming majority of the MEPs called upon freezing the
accession process started back in 1999.They reiterated rhetoric
questions about honesty in evaluating current situation in Turkey as if
fitting the Copenhagen criteria of a democratic society. The
aftermath of the coup turned into tsunami of  outrageous violations of
democratic freedoms.

One doesn’t need to refer to the Amnesty International’s annual report
for the numerous evidences of torture, violations of freedoms of
speech, unfair trials, degradation of women’s rights. The laws
offering rapists to marry the victims scandalized the world, and
arrests of politicians and journalist became a left the most ardent friends
of Turkey speechless. The Kurdish issue has been set ablaze
with arrests of the co-leaders of the HDK party.

It looks the card of the significance of the Turkey NATO membership was
overplayed by president #Erdogan to such an extend that even the most
staunch supporters of accession process were running out of
arguments.

The major fear of accession talks halt  is the galloping Islamisation
of the Turkish society, which will certainly continue even at higher
speed without the outside stimulus as the EU membership to keep the
society secular. However the accession talks didn’t proof to be
successful so far as a tool of promoting European values in
Turkey, and it make little sense to pretend that keeping accession
formally open would introduce a major change with an exception of loss
of credibility in the eyes of Turkish people, who expect solidarity
from Europeans.

The other issue which brings some hesitations over talks halt is
possibility of Turkey shifting closer to Russia, which is rather bleak
in view of ongoing Syrian conflict were positions of both countries
are difficult to aline.

There were also fears expressed that the freeze might solidify and become
permanent, meaning an end to an entire epoc of EU Enlargement policy.
These sentiments of regrets were challenged by MEP Charles Tannock (UK, ECR),
who reminded the fellow politicians that the accession of #Turkey played
a significant role in #Brexit vote. One can add that French
vote against EU Constitution (2005) was also influenced by an idea
of Turkey joining the EU.
Although overdue the move of taking distance from authoritarian Turkey,
increasingly reminiscent of the Ottoman Empire ruled by ‘Sultan’ #Erdogan,
it might still have a consolidating effect of the EU torn by multiple crisis es.
The decision to freeze the accession talks with Turkey is awaited
at the European Council in December.
End
Brussels-Strasbourg

#Trump opponents dash to clairvoyants

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trump-big-smile

The failure to promote #Hillary for the White House has been taken hard
by some of mass media outlets, turning in despair to supranatural powers in an attempt to stop #Trump to enter the office.
After the  chorus of university professors has admitted the idea of impeaching #Trump as president elect before inauguration as purely theoretical exercise the media sharks dashed to clairvoyants.
Apparently, there were not so many eager to mix into American political life, so the newspapers have turned to the legacy of the deceased Bulgarian clairvoyant reportedly predicting failure of the 45th US president to enter the office. The move indicating the frustrations of loser’s camp of the Democrats has reached its apogee.
The curse of the mystic is supposed to work as a ‘dirty bomb’ contaminating the enviroment and building up tensions in coming period before the inauguration, indicating along with the other signs that the transition of power will be everything but smooth.
However the blind Bulgarian psychic warning about ‘demise’ of the 45th president of the US (Donald Trump?) reveals media intentions to bless turmoil.
The mystic legacy picked up a la carte, has little value if any: where were her predictions on failures of both Bulgarians Irina Bokova an joining her in competition for the United Nations Secretary job Kristalina Georgieva? Or the US elections were closer to the mystics heart than the elections of the chief of the UN?
Further, the greatest of the European oracles of all the times has been used by #Trump opponents to reinforce the message: #Nostradamus Quatrain 81 warning about ‘the great shameless, audacious bawler’ and the other verse on change of laws in Byzantium have been blended by the conspirology theorists in a ‘piece of evedence’. Both pieces assembled produced fabricated ‘prediction’ for #Trump. What a nonsense! It can be good enough only for those who still believe in flat Earth resting of three whales:)
But even then and those already new, that the stars incline us, they do not bind us.
Astra inclinant, sed obligant!

#Trump’s triumph reflects on #EU

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trump-v

#Trump’s triumph has a direct and powerful impact on Europe’s political life – the upcoming elections 2017 in the #EU key countries, namely Dutch in March and French in May. Both unsystemic candidates Geert Wilders (PvV) and Marine Le Pen (FN) have sensed that their victory as ‘anti-establishment’ politicians can be materialized within months.
Marine Le Pen early congratulations to #Trump, noticed among first from the European political class, beyond doubt are sincere, as unsystemic candidate scorned and ridiculed by the French main stream media, she recognized the fresh wind of change over political landscape.
Clearly #Trump’s victory sets an example for European electorates to encourage them to express their free will, refusing the imposed by establishment figures.
The #EU austerity policy, toppled by failed immigration policy is too much to bear for exhausted Europeans, once upon a time looking up to the #EU as ‘peace and prosperity’ project. A million of migrants from Middle East and Africa, terrorist threat from jihadis, conflicts in Eastern and Mediterranean neighbourhoods create a dramatic setting, naturally forcing the citizens to reflect about change of political elites, who are directly responsible for the poor state of affairs.
This is certainly not a cheerful news for the #EU bureaucrats, who took their luxurious existence with mega salaries and generous pensions for granted, losing feeling of reality in their cosy Brussels bubble.
The idea of endless imposition of the #EU agenda on the citizens, without their consent, and follow up games of ‘second’ referendums as it happened to Ireland, or The Netherlands, whose Prime Minister Mark Rutte seems to ignore the results of the plebiscite, choosing for Brussels political schedule. This modus operandi might come to the end in the cause of 2017 in similar way as it happened in the USA, where the electorate kept the cards close to heart.
Now it is the turn of Europeans to take the destiny in their own hands.
Est modus in rebus…

#Clintons’ Sequel

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bil Clinton, Hillary Clinton

If amid #MonicaGate a Hollywood scriptwriter would bring a scenario of #Clintons come back to the Oval office, it would be dismissed without further discussion as a piece of a bad taste, and certainly too wild even for fiction.

However again life brings surprises reaching further than the wildest dreams: Clintons are at the threshold of the White House.
Would a man who committed a perjury become the US ”First gentleman”? Do American people consider chronic adultery fitting a ‘gentleman’s’ image to project on their own society and the rest of the world? The idea of covering husband’s adulteries does not look too feminist either.
Amazing that among 300 million strong nation no other candidate was picked up by the Democrats to promote but a woman seen by millions as ‘the most humiliated’ First lady and ‘the worst’ Secretary of Stage in American history. In brackets one should mention her fading health.
The double standards of treating #Hillary’s email scandal is another issue that makes perplexed anyone who has an idea of severity of punishment with which Americans protect their state secrets. The tragedy of ruined Libyan state, and slain Ambassador remains #Hillary’s paltry legacy as the US top diplomat.
‘We came, we saw … he died!” giggle will stay engraved as an negative example of devastating results of ignorance in foreign policy, because nowadays Libya is a playground of the international terrorism and jihad.
However as if by some hidden magic #Clintons’ reputation remains immune to damages and scandals they have caused.
Is #Clintons’ sequel in White House coming?.. – ‘Human madness variety is unlimited!’ (Avicenna)
Maniae infinitae sunt species

Charles Tannock, MEP interview on Libya from EP, Brussels

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Published on Oct 13, 2016 in ‘Brussels Diplomatic’

Interview with Carles Tannock ( ECR – UK ) on problems of Libya five years after Gaddafi’s assassination: playground for an international terrorism and jihad
MEP Charles Tannock – a member of Committee on Foreign Affairs of the European Parliament

#Parliament: #Brexit winning time

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uk-parliament

Strategically the decision of High Court to turn to #Parliament for a debate on #Brexit is to advantage for the #UK negotiations with the #EU, going through a profound political transformation during 2017.

From Dutch general elections in March to French presidential elections in May, and German federal elections foreseen in September/October clearly a new composition of political forces will shape European trends.
Irrespective of the victory of the ‘new patriots’ or souverenists /nationalist parties, the whole spectrum of political thinking is shifting to the right, leaving Socialists aside, and launching competition between center right and right-right (souvrenists).
Even the departure of the Socialist French president Francois Hollande as such will have a positive impact on #Brexit talks, because any other but Socialist leader will represent a flexible partner at negotiating table.
The dramatic growth of criminality in Europe might also encourage Dutch voter to search for protection in face of Geert’s Wilders Party for Freedom (PVV), whose ascendancy to power will mean #Nexit referendum in The Netherlands.
The major changes are awaiting Germany, whose population can not continue to pretend that migration policy of the ruling party represent any interest for them.
On contrary, the publication of statistics on crime raise has come as an evidence of correct predictions of Alternative for Germany (AfG), whose presence on political landscape is becoming more sound every day.
Resuming, one can guess, that the High Court is acting in the best interest of the #UK giving them time and space to depart from the EU with the best possible deal, opening new chapter of their relations with the continental Europe.
 
Tempore sedere semper sapientis est habitum🙂