Russia 1917-2017 from “dictatorship of proletariat” to oligarchy

The rejection of registration to Alexey Navalny did not come as a surprise to him – the authorities fabricated lawsuits against the major critic of Kremlin to find a reason to block his ascendance, regarding him as a dangerous challenger of oligarchy. However the announcement brought to a conclusion a century of Russia’s development: from 1917 seizure of control over the entire Empire by left radicals led by Lenin imposing the “dictatorship of proletariat”  to 2017 Putin’s plutocracy, or “dictatorship of oligarchy” formed at collapse of Soviet Empire the end of last century.

In a way both are extremes so typical to Russian character, product of a rhythm of development from stagnation to crisis.

With the exclusion of Navalny from elections the pattern of further political development is becoming familiar: the biological change of generations. Its climax reflected in so-called epoch of “ostentatious funerals” of dying out members of Politburo, who were eager to try the crown of the fading Empire even for a few months before the end of their life, prolonged due to professionalism of Kremlin physicians. The political commentators were defining the state of play from the color of the walls behind the  leader addressing the nation, and mostly they were  grey ones from Soviet hospitals. “USSR is governed from hospital ward!” – exclaimed one of the critics of Communist party. Now a well-known scenario is awaiting Russians again.

Accustomed to changes caused by two major factors: biological and organic (hydrocarbons, or simply price of oil and gas – the backbone of Russian economy), or combination of two, as it happened during Gorbachev’s perestroika, Russians are patiently waiting for the end of the cycle, preferring stagnation to revolution. The intense search of truth in a century brought from dictatorship of proletariat to oligarchy, bypassing democracy. With vivid memories over ‘big robbery’ of Russians in the 90s, they are hardly prepared for another experiment, looking forward to a long stretch of stagnation ahead. To the winter of discontent…

 

Navalny conviction means Putin forever

navalny-barred

Barring of Russian politician, and fighter against corruption, Alexei Navalny turns next year presidential elections into a soap a long time before it starts. The powerful opponent of Vladimir Putin is out of the race, so Kremlin can be sure there will be no unpleasant surprises while opening of ballot boxes.

The farce of the politically motivated trial does signal a clear message to Russians, and to the world: the authoritarian is there to stay. In a way Putin beats Leonid Brezhnev record of 18 years: from inauguration on 7th of May 2000 to potential 2024 makes his reign 30% longer that the tzar’s of late Soviet stagnation.
The mechanical removal of Navalny is meaning Russia’s return to its very self, developing from crisis to crisis, with biological renewal of the leadership over lengthy periods of stagnation in between.. “White tzars, red tzars, grey tzars”, – Johan Le Carre’s definition of Russia’s political history can’t be described better in a few words.

#Mogherini vs Russia: change of tone

 

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Comment on the arrival and doorstep (in English) by Federica MOGHERINI, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the EC.

The wording of the top #EU diplomat has changed in absence of any evidence of so called ‘Russian atrocities’ in #Aleppo. Swifly she shifted from condemnation of fictitious crimes of #Assad troops backed by Russian to an appeal to ‘protect’ civilians.

Clearly once again the hellish machine of the Western propaganda failed to smear Russians for their struggle against #Islamic State attacking Syria. Instead of saying ‘thank you’ to Russians for fighting #IS the West did everything possible during the entire conflict in Syria from the day One to cover the real atrocities of the Islamic fundamentalists. John Kerry was trying again and again to convince Sergey Lavrov to give the Islamists a halt. The Cold War is over, but its rudiments are still in the minds of politicians, fighting for sphere of influence in the Middle East at cost of human lives.

The European Union prefers to see the Middle East and North Africa to be seized by bearded fanatics slaughtering people, than co-operate with Kremlin on fighing Islamic fundamentalism. Europe participated in destruction Iraq, they destroyed Libya, covering #Gaddafi assassination with a figue leave of the UN resolution on no-fly zone; the West degraded Libya to a giant playground of terrorist groups from Al Qaeda to Boko Haram, – now each assembly of villains has there its active branch.

Thanks to Russians the Syrian secular state survived attacks of fundamentalists, backed by Americans and Europeans, the way they did it with #Taliban in #Afghanistan using them as a weapon against the USSR. Russians left when the USSR collapsed, however now the West has a problem in Afhanistan that is unsolvable for generation to come. Radical Islam claimed thousands of lives, and will continue to claim more. The EU and their allies did not learn from their lessons in the past. Unfortunately, the price for their mistakes will be paid by the regular citizens, who will face the need to defend themselves against the real, not ficticious atrocities of the Islamists, their politicians so tenderly cared about. In spite of their efforts during five years of Syrian conflict the ‘moderate opposition’ did not manage to separate from the #jihaddi. Looks suspicious, doesn’t it?

 

 

#Fotyga: propaganda toxic substance

fotyga-ep

The MEP Anna Fotyga’s report on ”Russian and Islamist propaganda” debated in European Parliament is one of the most surrealistic documents produced by an assembly in modern history. Even from a first glance it looks exotic resembling a hybrid of a Nile crocodile and a red-tailored hawk – a monster from Middle Ages artist Jeroen Bosch paintings of Hell.

Certainly it is reflecting a personal animosity of Ms Fotyga – a former Polish #Kaczyński Foreign affairs minister – towards Kremlin, degrading Russian mass media undertakings to Islamic state information warfare against the West.

One can question a rational behind the choice of the rapporteur who has not been able to abandon Cold War modality in 25 years after the fall of Berlin Wall,
confusing Russia with the USSR, as if still an existing entity along with the Islamic state.

Knowing the slow pace of the EU institutions one can guess that the idea of the report was conceived in a firm believe of the continuation of the US Democrat’s policy of sanctioning Russia. Within a new political situation, when president elect has declared Russia as a ‘partner’, the Fotyga’s report looks not only dramatically outdated, but also phantasmagoria.

An obsessive wish to degrade Russia’s mass-media, namely #RussaTodayTV to propaganda machine of the Islamic state (IS) deprived the report of substance, because neither problems of the communication streams from Russia or from IS to the EU was properly addressed.
One could say that it would have been a regular piece of ‘brining sand to beach’ institutional work, if not unforeseen dangerous by effects.
Today the US election results  ensuring a change in the Western foreign policy is a key factor, making Fotyga’s report outdated, however it is more than about looks.
The presidential elections process in France indicated two major favorites: the Republican Francois Fillion and Front National Marine Le Pen – both declaring Russia as a natural partner of France. The inevitable upcoming change of the foreign policy course of the founding member state of the EU, will have a profound influence on the EU-Russia relations confronting the East European countries with a necessity to abandon chronic Cold War modus vivendi.
The reluctance to change attitude vis-à-vis Russia would create additional divides in relations between EU old and new member states, already existing in the issues of migration.The rejection of Poland to take fair share of migrants from Italy and Greece completed with the rejection of accepting a pragmatic approach towards Kremlin might be too much for the Union to bear: these cracks will start a tectonic shift between Eastern (Vicegrad group) and Western Europe,signifying its end of the status quo EU27+UK earlier than #Brexit happens.
Turning to a really burning issue of finding an anti-dot for the perilous ideology of Islamic state, Fotyga reports does not break through the standard kit of wooden language formula, already proven to be pretty useless in protecting youth from terrorist recruiters. Subsequently it would make sense to convey the preparation of such a report to a representative of a country having the most extensive experience with the IS recruiting victims – Belgium.
Concluding, one can propose two separate reports on effects of communications, offering IS to a Belgium politician and experts, and to a Latvian, where the biggest Russian community in Europe lives, to relay on first hand experience and advice.
However ending shameful practise of Russian non-citizens in the EU, namely in Estonia and Latvia would be at most effective promotion for the European values without any ‘counter-propaganda’ strategies to invent. It is hardly makes sense to invest money in development of virtual projects, describing wonders of Europe to the EU Russians who continue stateless existence long after the collapse of the USSR.
Finally, the simple arithmetic shows the malaise of the European politicians voting the controversial Fotyga’s report converted into a resolution: 304 MEPs for, 179 against, 208 (!) abstentions.
‘EU strategic communication to counteract propaganda against it by third parties’ drafted by MEP Fotyga passed, the toxic spilled, collateral damages to be estimated later.

 

#Ukraine Independence Parade

Ukraine parade

In quarter of a century of Independence Ukraine -”Nezalezhna’ – lost almost all of its USSR opulent heritage: the powerful industry, agricultural exports to Russia, the rich provinces attached to Ukrainian Soviet Republic by whims of Communists, and even the position of a reliable transit country for Russian gas to Europe, – pathetic record for a society, notorious for its bipolar modus vivendi from extremes of endemic corruption to revolution.
However none of the coloured revolutions brought much desired effect, but degrading the living standards of the population to African level with the minimum salary of 1450 hrivna (USD58) similar to Zimbabwe and Rwanda.
Exhausted from struggle for power between clans of oligarchs, and de facto civil war in Donbass, claiming its independence, the  Ukrainian population in vain has been looking up to Brussels – although inspiring Maidan, eurocrats did not have any plan for integration of 43 million populated state then, neither do they have it now. Taken aback by it’s own problems as a result of the departure of one of the top contributors to its budget, and overburdened by tsunami of migrants, the EU has no desire to invest in Ukraine, unable to fight its corruption. The appeals for European generosity became an instant part of Kiev’s diplomats monotone repertoire, blaming Russia for all the failures.
Amid the intense campaigning  for rapprochement with the EU, a verdict fall down unexpectedly in a form of the Dutch referendum, when citizens refused to endorse the Association agreement with Ukraine, creating a tangible obstacle on the imaginary Ukrainian trajectory to European family of nations.

Celebrating Independence by parading infantry, navy and air force, rattling sabre of eroded by corruption army, unwanted in the East and the West, where are you marching, Ukraine?..