INF funeral revives nuclear war threat

Russia‘s defense minister Sergey Shoygu announced the  intention to build mid-range, nuclear-capable missiles a week after the President Trump has decided to abandon INF Treaty, which is considered to be one of the biggest achievement of humanity, closing the chapter of  the Cold War. The world is pushed back full force into the situation of the imminent risk of the World war III, triggered by will or by an accident. The dangerous perception of possibility to wage and win a nuclear war is back.

It would be very naive to think that technology is perfect: in 1983 Soviet officer on duty has prevented the nuclear war just because of his exceptional capacity for analysis, assuming the information he received from computers was erroneous – an episode of Cold War known as “false nuclear attack“.

The humanity was exceptionally lucky, that Stanislav Petrov was on duty on September 26, 1983 to identify the missile attack warnings as “false alarm“. His personal decision to disobey the rules is seen as having prevented a retaliatory nuclear attack based on erroneous signals on the United States and its NATO allies missiles, which could have resulted in immediate escalation to the full-scaled nuclear war. Now we, as humanity are back to the situation when our survival depends on decision of an officer on duty, watching the monitor.

Last five years both the Americans and Russians blamed each other the violation of the INF, however it was NATO rapidly expanding.

Kremlin accuses the U.S. of violating the INF by the deployment of Aegis missile defence system in Romania and Poland, indicating that the launchers used in that system for defensive interceptors could be adapted to fire offensive cruise missiles.

In return Washington accused Russians of employment mystery missile  9M729  for Iskander launchers being more powerful than declared (480 km).  Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov acknowledged its existence but firmly denied it was capable to hit targets between 500 -5,500 km away, strictly compliant with the INF.

The problems accumulating in the US-Russia relations have created a toxic mass within a new political and military context, caused by NATO galloping enlargement with a subsequent advancing of the military infrastructure to Russian borders: after including the East European countries, belonging to the Warsaw Pact the moment of the INF signature between Reagan and Gorbachev. nowadays the Alliance moved further to the East opening its door for Georgia and Ukraine. The perspective of installing Aegis there will create a vulnerability for Moscow, impossible to neglect.

However existing problems of relations between superpowers do not give a right to cancel the greatest achievement of the past, reversing progress, and pushing humanity to the brink of a fatal nuclear conflict, of which Europe is becoming a hostage. The American ambition for the hegemony has price too high to pay – the extinction of our civilization.

#Imlil: Terrorist act in Morocco

Anna van Densky OPINION Club of Moroccan advocates called for a vigil (22.12.2018) for two decapitated Scandinavian tourists, expressing their profound sorrow and indignation about the abominable crime.

Undoubtedly, many Moroccans are shocked by the hideous act of the “soldiers of Caliphate“, serving Al-Baghdadi, but is the condemnation of the radical Islam sufficient to continue “business as usual” in Morocco, meaning uninterrupted flow of tourists from Europe? Fascinated by the exotic beauty, and the opulent historic heritage of the north African country , the European travelers bring 10% of PIP, with record 11,35 million of visitors in 2017, which means the hospitality industry constitutes a considerable wealth for the country, and some remote communities as the one in #Imlil, next to the highest peak of the Atlas mountains – Toubkal (4.167 m), – are entirely dependent on hikers like late Maren and Louisa. Will the tourists continue to follow the track, where two young women were tortured, raped and decapitated, to enjoy the belle vue?..

One can hardly blame the Moroccan authorities an immobility in fighting terrorism. Since 2015 Moroccan government launched an ongoing special operation ‘Hadar‘ (Vigilance), covering the major cities and touristic sites, in the frame of this operation the street patrols were reinforced with two military next to each policeman. The Central investigation office (General Directorate of Territorial Surveillance) reported 902 arrests, and 57 dismantled terrorists groups. But still in spite of all these efforts the barbaric act of beheading of Scandinavian tourists happened, and it would be too simplistic to blame the local community without placing the situation into the context of the dangerous transformations in Maghreb.

Since assassination of  Colonel Gaddafi (20/10/2011) and destruction of the Libyan statethere is hardly a terrorist group that is not represented in wast ‘no man land‘ of once a wealthy and stable country, protecting it borders, and fighting terrorism.  Subsequently the fragmented territory of  Libya represents a stronghold for export of radical Islam in the entire region. Between 2011 and 2014 a total of 1,105 acts of terrorism were recorded in the countries of Maghreb, and statistics shows that the phenomenon of radical Islam is at rise: in 2014 the number of terrorist incidents was almost 47 times greater than of recorded in 2011, and nine in 10 registered in Libya.

Libya as failed state creates an ideal grounds for exporting radical Islam to adjacent countries, and unless the international community, and namely the European Union, invest considerable efforts to unite the fragmented entities, and bring back stability, the warriors of Caliphate will make the maximum use of chaos.

23.12.2018 AMENDED:

Hundreds of mourners attended a vigil in Moroccan capital Rabat for a vigil next to Embassies of Denmark and Norway; flowers and candles were also laid in Marrakesh, and in the southern village of Imlil, near where the bodies of two young women were found.

Investigation released an opinion of experts from Norway, indicating they are no reasons to suspect the video of beheading is false. The post-mortem examinations will take place in retrospective countries.

Yellow Vests: downfall of ‘Jupiter’

Anna van Densky OPINION The fumes of riots of Yellow Vests don’t distort the clarity of the picture – the working France could not bear any more the policy of successive governments pressing them as lemon to fund their ambitious European and international agenda. The plans of the President Macron to go global came in clash with local: the gasoline tax became the last straw that broke the back of many, especially “working poor“.

Following their ‘Jupiter’, or like French say it, ‘the elected King‘, French people had to continue to actively participate in footing the EU cohesion of Eastern Europe, flows of migrants and refugees,  who have right to live in dignity, the aid to the other continents for their development, climate change, and many other noble causes in the world, sacrificing their own needs. “Americans First!” gave them some eyeopening ideas. Are French really responsible for all the grief in the world?..Don’t they deserve to benefit from the advantages of technological revolution?..

Doubtfully the EU aggressive foreign policy added a huge portion of combustible: the Enlargement shifting borders to the East came to its logical end in a Donbass conflict.  The following war of sanctions with Russia had negative effects on French economy, although not direct, but long lasting,  when the exports being replaced without reverse by the other countries like Turkey, Morocco, or Argentina. In spite of the shrinking agricultural exports, and related difficulties the President declared the increase of the 2019 defense budget by €1.7 billion – up five percent from the present year, the move made under pressure of the Pentagon hawks to meet NATO target military spending.

Detached from working France in his gilded office of the impératrice Josephine palace – Elysée in his rigid role of an ‘elected KingEmmanuel Macron looks archaic, like a relic of another epoch, next to the leaders of the other democracies in Europe, framed in their actions by national parliaments. The modernization of the Fifth Republic, shifting powers from President to Parliament could restore the coherence of French society, while conservation of the archaic forms of governance will  continue to provoke the archaic forms of answers – insurrections.

However the uprising of the Yellow Vests is just the first act. The real tectonic shift in politics will take place in upcoming elections to European parliament: the downfall of ‘Jupiter’.

Minsk Agreement funeral

Today, the 2 of September, the assassinated leader of self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic Aleksandr Zakharchenko (42) will be lying in state, and the Minsk Agreements are buried together with him.

If, before the assassination many commentators would say, there was no alternative to  ‘Minsk‘, and they were the only road map we had to end  the bloodshed in Eastern Europe, after the terrorist act taking away life of a man, who believed in negotiated peace with Kiev, the Agreement died, because the trust in good will of Ukrainian authorities was definitely killed.

After the explosion in cafe, which took lives of Zakharchenko and his two bodyguards there is no one left in Donetsk who cherishes the illusion of Kiev’s intentions to reintegrate the breakaway Russian-speaking region through the negotiations.

A son on a coal-miner, Zakharchenko was widely appreciated for his integrity and believe in the success of Donetsk Republic independence. As  a soldier he fought against Ukrainian nationalism, defending Donbass people identity. “I’m speechless. Blessed be his memory…”, write Twitter micro blog users. “Heroes don’t die“,  echo the others. “He will go on forever!“. Unfortunately, we can not say the same about the Minsk Agreements. The bomb explosion in the center of Donetsk took live of its leader and trust in ‘Minsk‘. The local media reports readiness to counter-attacks, repelling Kiev troops. War hawks win again. Hoc est bellum – this is war…

Putin: Russian military presence in Syria will last as long as necessary

President Vladimir Putin assessed Russian engagement in Syria as a “unique experience” for military, and an “important mission” aimed at protection of interests of Russian citizens, he underlined that those who sacrificed their lives defeating terrorism will be “never forgotten“. The President said that Russian military presence in Syria is fulfilled within the framework of international law, and the assistance in big-scale combat operation of the Syrian army in not needed any more, while the major focus has shifted towards political resolution of the conflict. The comments were made during ‘direct line’ emission.

Thousands of insurgents accumulated in Syria, and it was better to neutralize them there, than let them enter Russian Federation through Central Asian open borders, Putin continued. At present there is no more need in  large-scale combat operations, the President ensured, while the political resolution of the conflict is on the agenda.

However two Russian military locations – Tartus and Khmeimim Air Base  in Syria will stay as long as “beneficial and needed” to defend Russian interests in this “close to Russia region“.

The President explained that there are no permanent constructions on the territory of both Russian basis in Syria , and in case of necessity,  the military can be moved out swiftly.

The experience in Syria is a precious for our troops, but Syria is not a test site for Russian weapons“, Putin continued, “Russian specialists adjusted already functioning systems to in the field, in the combat situations”.

A significant number of Russian officers and generals had an opportunity to participate in missions in Syria, accumulating experience of combat operations, allowing to make one more step to “perfect our military“.

 

EU Visa-free for Russians

Offering Russians unilateral visa-free to the EU – is one of the major proposals of the Alliance of European Liberals and Democrats announced at a year conference on EU-Russia relations #EURussia, taking place on the third anniversary of Boris Nemtsov assassination.

The move is meant in ‘immediate and unconditional’ support of the civil society, experiencing difficulty of alienation from Europe, while regular Russians increasingly perceive the EU as an antagonistic power, especially after confrontation with the negative consequences of the EU Enlargement policy, leading to conflicts in Georgia and Ukraine.

“The biggest mistake on our behalf towards the West is that we trusted you too much,” President Vladimir Putin said. He underlined that the West, in their turn, made an unforgivable mistake – abused this trust.

Would the visa-free enhance exchanges, people-to-people contacts and heal the profound mistrust Russians feel towards the West? While Donetsk and Lugansk are under siege, and Russian children go to school risking being shot by shelling of Ukrainian army, while so-called ‘Syrian opposition’, supported by European, kills Russian pilots on counter-terrorist missions, – while the bloodshed is going on, it will be rather simplistic to consider that visa-free would restore the harmony. Although had it ever existed in relations between Europe and Russia?..

Children Donbass

Image: citizens’ journalism ‘Killed children of Donbass’

 

 

 

Taliban as a part of “social fabric”

After a decade of military campaign, and removal of troops under the pretext of fulfilled mission, Afghanistan shocks the world by the spectacular resurrection of Taliban: according to the BBC studies the Islamists are controlling significant territories, leaving to government just one third, and even though it is not free from terrorist attacks.

Sadly, the longevity of Taliban, and other Islamic radical ideologies in Afghanistan would be impossible without support of a significant part of population, disregarding the efforts of the West to introduce the democratic values by military and the other means.

Afghanistan returns to Taliban as its point of departure. In Europe Muslim girls, whose mothers were wearing mini skirts, sincerely prefer burqas, or at least scarfs to flaunt their belief in the streets of European cities, the cities in which they were born, but don’t appreciate, prefering to associate themselves with Medieval societies their parents fled.

Nowadays they say, that Taliban is a part of Afghanistan “social fabric” – how European “social fabric” will look like in 10-20 years, if the levels of Muslim migration remain the same?