Ab absurdo: Puigdemont as asylum-seeker

Anna van Densky, OPINION The circulating in mainstream media hypothesis of President of Catalan Republic Carles Puigdemont escapade to Brussels in search of political asylum can’t be regarded otherwise as absurd.

First, if politicians have to flee Spain because of dissent, it will mean that Kingdom of Spain is not a democracy. (Political dissident from Span? Hmmm… It reminds me of something…)

Second, it would mean that organising plebiscite is a criminal activity, which will provoke a confrontation with the United Nations, being in contradiction with the most sacred part of international law – the human rights.

Third, the attack on human rights will torpedo the work of entire EU External Actions Service, discrediting their efforts to improve human rights situation outside the bloc.

Forth, it will reinforce the public sympathy for Catalans, and raise criticism against the European institutions for not respecting their own engagements, and principles. So many citizens will ignore the next elections to the European Parliament, which will be a blow to the EU credibility. Imagine if only 20% of Europeans come to drop ballots for EU?..

So there are some reasons for which Carles Puigdemont will be never charged for organising a plebiscite, and never arrested.

Unfortunately, the crisis government of prime minister Mariano Rajoy created will continue, however the EU can not afford to let it rub off its own image and activities, subsequently the EU will not allow Puigdemont to become Europe’s Nelson Mandela. The Brussels has many faults, but giving in to Madrid in human rights abuse means to agree to look like a theatre of absurd – a suicidal move for an already shaken by Brexit project. Ab absurdo!

 

Catalonia in limbo

Anna van Densky, OPINION  The indecisiveness of the Catalan leadership, and seemingly endless diplomatic maneuvering of Carles Puigdemont opened a broad way to Mariano Rajoy government to launch an offensive. Rajoy has an advantage over Catalans – he is clear, but his opponent are not. If in the aftermath of the referendum the sympathies of the international community to freedom-aspiring Catalans were high, the following confusion about status declaration, and  a step back  in suspension took away large portion of this sentiment, drowning in doubt over region’s clarity of vision for its future. What do Catalans want?..

One can not spend month marching in the streets, waving flags, expressing will to become free, without considerable damages to economy, scaring business away with instability,  and in this regard Rajoy’s intention to go back to blacks restoring calm is understandable in essence, although unacceptable in form from a democratic perspective – restoring order by military means is at odds with so often proclaimed “EU values.”

However today Rajoy’s government is winning grounds, while Catalans losing, because of a protracted ‘limbo’  situation Catalan leaders have chosen for. Economic interests of majority of Europeans prevail over Catalan ideals of freedom, hovering high, but unable to materialize.

Carles Puigdemont received power from Catalans, but lost it in vain attempting to settle the argument with Madrid in ‘European” style of “velvet” revolutions – poor judgement of application of examples of other cultures within the Spanish context of post-Franco era. Too much time wasted on an illusion awaiting a ‘dialogue’, allowing Madrid diplomacy to advance…

Great Spanish protagonist Don Quixote tries to bring justice to the world, revive chivalry high ideals, but is doomed, when confronted with the realities of life. Classics are great due to their universal dimension – apparently there are also Don Quixotes in Catalonia nowadays. We sympathize with them, we feel compassionate towards them, but we don’t understand them: the moment we think we do, Catalan Don Quixotes surprise us, contradicting our premise.

 

 

Catalonia: rise or fall?..

Anna van Densky, OPINION On contrary to what many in Madrid and Brussel hope, the aspiration of independence of Catalans, and problem it poses to Kingdom of Spain, and a number of European countries concerned with separatists movements, this dream of independence will not fade away. There were around 70 states after the WWII, and now at the UN there are more than 200, and their number is continuing to grow, so independence is clearly a world trend to stay.

The trend which insures that Mariano Rajoy and all successive governments will be facing a constant pressure from the Catalans, both citizens and political class, aspiring freedom. The only viable solution is in following Czechoslovakia model of separation, known as ‘velvet divorce’ diminishing related damages of all kinds, and removing combustible of a potential conflict in future.

In case of unconditional recognition of Catalan independence by Spain, the breakaway region can stay in the EU, NATO and continue to cultivate close economic ties with Madrid. It would be a mutually beneficial relationship between two countries, and also for the larger EU community.

However it is highly unlikely that Rajoy government will accept this ‘velvet’ way of dealing with the issue, as the entire world have seen his choice of repression as a method of resolving the political crisis. Usually gurus avoid to speculate on the future, pointing at the absence of a crystal ball, but in some cases the forecast is easier to model, because the situation is typical, occurring many times before.

In Catalan case there are three possible scenarios, and among them one is highly hypothetic, mentioned above ‘velvet divorce’.

The two other are rather standard: or Carles Puigdemont without delay declares independence based on the results of the plebiscite, and moves on with the state construction agenda outside the EU, with support of some of the European countries, and some of EU member-states, recognising free Catalan Republic, or he loses momentum.

In case Catalans lose the momentum,  Rajoy would go into offensive with multiple Court cases, accusing Catalan politicians of coup-d’état – the blame already articulated by Spanish diplomats in mass-media. In this case, Puigdemont will face 14 Stations of the Cross literally, not allegorically, because Spanish courts will charge him with treason.

The most active members of political elite would face the similar fate, and the independence movement would be ‘beheaded’, which is a rather standard scenario repeated many times through history.

The other practical step would be taken into direction of undermining the economic base for independence, with the removal of key financial and industrial players from Catalonia. (The process has already started with the relocation of offices of Spanish banks). Is is already clear that Madrid would prefer to sacrifice economy and living standards of the population, punishing Catalonia,  for the sake of the unity of the Kingdom.

Logically, facing the betrayal of the EU, rejecting to protect human rights of Catalans, denying them the right of self-determination, and referring to the situation as to an home affair of Spain, Puigdemont has no much space for maneuvering  horizontally, but only between raise and fall vertically. The clock is ticking, so are the risks of postponing the independence declaration for tomorrow, that might never come…

 

 

 

Syria: Trump starring Machiavelli

Trump US Syria

The President Trump’ missile strikes on Syria amid #RussianConnections investigation give a déjà vue feeling reminiscent of Bill Clinton’ bombing of Iraq amid #MonicaGate. The initiative of a crusade for alleged chemical weapons used by president Assad reminded many,  including UN diplomat is, the bulb with white powder, demonstrated by gen.Powell before US invasion in Iraq.  Trump’s missile strike evoked so many memories…

It is hard to belive the US President was so touched by the dead babies in Syria, as some suggest,  to order a strike in an emotional move. Just couple of weeks ago (17.03.2017) he let pass unnoticed the assassination of 300  civilians in residential area of Mosul. There were certainly babies among the Iraqi victims too, but it was qualified as an ‘an unintentional accident of war’ without any consequences for the perpetrators.

Nobody was indignant about these casualties, the slain were not honored by Ambassador Haley demonstrative grief and indignation at UN emergency meeting, and there was no urgent meeting as such. The information in the beginning came to public attention  through non-American media sources, while  the US representatives were trying to find excuses for the  massive loss of human live, ‘further investigating’ and ‘learning lesson’.

In case of late US missile strike on Syria is became clear that is was planned sometime before the alleged chemical incident reported by  human rights NGOs used by the administration in bona fide, and merely as a pretext to intervene. Why ?

The first explanation is on the surface: it allows to distract attention from ongoing #RussianConnections investigation fuelled by the Democrats. Startled to discover the President is acting towards Assad in the same lines as Hillary Clinton suggested, the opponents have to put their criticism of Trump’s foreign policy on a halt, finding themselves in confusion over the U-turn strategy of the Commander-in-Chief.

Even more so the Democrates were puzzled with stakes in prism of policy towards Russia – just a week before Rex Tillerson visit to Moscow, – the missile attack on Syria, a Russian ally, transforms the US Foreign Secretary in a powerful foe, entering Moscow in the context close to the dark times of Cold War. Although there is some feeling that the Americans were sure, that president Putin would not clash with them over a remote airbase in Syria.

Awkwardly the ‘imperialistic’ ambition of Trump’s administration would help a great deal to President’s Putin re-election (endorsement) for the fourth term, uniting the nation in face of ‘American threat’, convincing a regular Russian in need of a ‘strong man’ at a steering wheel in turbulent times.

Altogether with one strike President Trump hit many goals: distracting attention of his opponents at home, pleasing his electorate with an image of a powerful and fearless world leader, protecting world order and going back to blacks of international politics making some of the European leaders delighted by clashes with Kremlin, and later paradoxically not so discontent, how it might look at first glance, benefiting from US unlawful military action in domestic political discourse. The revival of the US ‘imperialistic ambitions’ will help Putin in re-elections (endorsement) of his fourth term by regular Russians, convincing them he is a ‘strong man’ they need to withstand the predator’s instinct of ‘American imperialism.’

Machiavelli style of President Trump, making it an almost perfect a ‘knights move,’ is certainly impressive in many ways, if not contributing to Daesh survival, but never mind. Most probably DAESH was not ment to vanish, creating a protracted conflict in the Middle East. However it is a different issue. Today the mega-winner of the strikes is the Commander-in-Chief himself. Vivat!

Diplomacy of submission

 

sweden

Bending heads with veils on their heads Swedish ministers pass by triumphant Rouhani, without shaking hands. It is not a Hollywood fiction – in an attempt to strike lucrative deals the Swedish feminist government sacrificed their convictions, and accepted the religious outfits and submissive conduct. A great victory of The Prophet adepts over the  women’s rights, the gender equality, and overall promotion of the secular modern standards, – everything Europeans are flaunting while projecting their image onto bigger world.

 

There was no battle, just straightforward betrayal of the convictions for ’30 pieces of silver’. However the battle would be misplaced: the practicing open door policy Socialists in Sweden ensured the influx of Muslim population soon overwhelming the kind aboriginals of  the ‘humanitarian superpower’. Over last decade around half a million of asylum-seekers arrived to Sweden, 163 000 last year. This mass migration led not only to standing ovation of the international community, but to an explosions of violent crimes and even gang wars in Swedish cities, no-go zones, and one-third of women concerned by sexual assaults. Many say they prefer to give up going out in the evenings to avoid the risks.
The steep rise of criminality, especially harming women’s freedoms and safety, brought with mass migration does not shake Sweden’s leftist establishment and devoted media unjustified belief in multiculturalism as the model of a perfect society. The left continues to insist on large-scale immigration from the poorest, most backward places on earth, where women are lapidated  or vitriolaged, where submission is a survival, and an integral veil is a must. Alas in Sweden as elsewhere between two standards it is the lowest that takes over,  reflecting in degrading situation with the women’s rights in growing no-go zones in once calm Swedish cities.  Those aborigines who disagree with the Socialist’s policy risk being labeled racist, fascist, and even Nazi!
The current migration trends lead to stable degradation of once a wealthiest and safest countries in the EU to the Thrid World place ranks. The UN report Human Development Index (HDI) predicts a significant decrease in Swedish prosperity, unlike their Nordic neighbors, who had no ambition to become ‘humanitarian superpowers’.
In 2010 Sweden had the 15th place in the HDI rankings but according to UN forecasts, it will be at #45 by 2030: while intensely importing population of the Thrid World the country will become part of it due to efforts of the left. By 2030 40% of Swedes will be Muslims.
Subsequently,  it is not a masquerade of Swedish female ministers, compromising their convictions for trade benefits with Islamic Republic of Iran, but a model of nearest future for this compassionate European country and its womanhood,  victims to the wining  Muslim trend.

EU against child-soldier practise

al-shabab-child-soldeir

Ahead of the International Day against the use of child soldiers – 12 February -the EU top diplomat Federica Mogherini and the UN Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict, Leila Zerrougui, pledge to intensify their efforts to end the recruitment and use of children in armed conflict.

“On the International Day against the Use of Child Soldiers we jointly celebrate a growing global consensus among UN Member States that they should not recruit or use children in armed forces in conflict and that boys and girls should be protected from all grave violations.” –  continued Mogherini.

“Child soldiers are always the victims: forced to combat, often brutally abused, and not rarely isolated when they finally manage to get back to their communities. I met Colombian boys and girls who have managed to quit the FARC’s guerrilla and are now looking at their future with hope”.

“We have the duty to keep supporting them and all the former child soldiers, to give them the chance of a good education and of a place in their societies. At the same time, we will continue to bring forward our engagement in ending the recruitment and use of children by armed forces. Depriving a child of its rights is depriving a society of its future,” – said Federica Mogherini.

UK to walk away without a deal?

 

trump-and-may

The UK departure without a deal as a concept appears persistently in different contexts, approaching the date of the triggering Article 50, promised by Prime Minister Theresa May in March, likely before the Treaty of Rome celebrations on the 27th, but after the Dutch general elections on the 15th. The UK officials do not wish to harm the fragile ties with the EU27, and complicate the situation of one millions of compatriots, chosen the continental Europe as their home.

The hostile rhetoric of the EU high officials, especially the Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Commission, and the veteran of the EU project, made many politicians and experts to consider the departure without any settlement as a viable option, shielded by the WTO rules.

The perspective of the free-trade agreement with the US, opened after the visit of the PM May to the White House, makes ‘no deal better than a poor deal’ approach a leading trend.

Picture: US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Theresa May walking through White House gallery.