Navalny conviction means Putin forever

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Barring of Russian politician, and fighter against corruption, Alexei Navalny turns next year presidential elections into a soap a long time before it starts. The powerful opponent of Vladimir Putin is out of the race, so Kremlin can be sure there will be no unpleasant surprises while opening of ballot boxes.

The farce of the politically motivated trial does signal a clear message to Russians, and to the world: the authoritarian is there to stay. In a way Putin beats Leonid Brezhnev record of 18 years: from inauguration on 7th of May 2000 to potential 2024 makes his reign 30% longer that the tzar’s of late Soviet stagnation.
The mechanical removal of Navalny is meaning Russia’s return to its very self, developing from crisis to crisis, with biological renewal of the leadership over lengthy periods of stagnation in between.. “White tzars, red tzars, grey tzars”, – Johan Le Carre’s definition of Russia’s political history can’t be described better in a few words.

Fillon liberates the way to Le Pen

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Photo: illustration Francois and Penelope Fillon in better days
When Mr.Fillion was singing a lavish allowance to his wife from a public fund he couldn’t have guessed what an effect his misplaced generosity would have on the cause of European history. If before #PenelopeGate the majority of French were sure Fillon is their next president, after the scandal the wheel of fortune definitely moved away from him. The downfall of the front-runner gave to Marine Le Pen’s chances to become next president of the V Republic, changing her candidate status from ‘probable’ to ‘highly probable’. The ascendancy of Front National leader to Élysée Palace will certainly initiate the fundamental reshaping of the European project, so much feared by the keepers of EU dogma.

The sudden “misfortune” in the form of preliminary investigation in the prosecutor’s office that brutally changed the fate of the front-runner of the French presidential elections Francois Fillon, recasts the whole of political performance just a couple of month before the J-Day.

Many observers point out that French electorate is quite used to a fact of public fund abuse and flourishing nepotism in the political cast, so they can not be surprised by one more scandal, because they have seen so many. However this time there is a particular case because while generously filling the family budget from the public funds, Mr.Fillon called for austerity policy for his compatriots – the hypocrisy that destroyed his reputation forever.
The jungle of politics follows its laws, scavenging on what is over from Fillon’s reputation, the public opinion is upgrading in ranks Front National Marine Le Pen, and a newcomer – semi-Socialist Emmanuel Macron, from now onwards two most probable candidates to confront in the second round of elections.
If before the #PenelopeGate the battle between Fillon and Macron was considered to be difficult to latter because of lack to the governing experience, the competition with Marcon profiles Le Pen to her advantage. As a career politician she is heavy-weight next to Macron-banker, and short time finance minister of the most unpopular president of the V Republic. Not the best of the references so far. However his very recent political record would not encourage many to experiment with Mr.Macron as a president of the country, already hugely disappointed in the management of his Socialist boss.

#Fotyga: propaganda toxic substance

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The MEP Anna Fotyga’s report on ”Russian and Islamist propaganda” debated in European Parliament is one of the most surrealistic documents produced by an assembly in modern history. Even from a first glance it looks exotic resembling a hybrid of a Nile crocodile and a red-tailored hawk – a monster from Middle Ages artist Jeroen Bosch paintings of Hell.

Certainly it is reflecting a personal animosity of Ms Fotyga – a former Polish #Kaczyński Foreign affairs minister – towards Kremlin, degrading Russian mass media undertakings to Islamic state information warfare against the West.

One can question a rational behind the choice of the rapporteur who has not been able to abandon Cold War modality in 25 years after the fall of Berlin Wall,
confusing Russia with the USSR, as if still an existing entity along with the Islamic state.

Knowing the slow pace of the EU institutions one can guess that the idea of the report was conceived in a firm believe of the continuation of the US Democrat’s policy of sanctioning Russia. Within a new political situation, when president elect has declared Russia as a ‘partner’, the Fotyga’s report looks not only dramatically outdated, but also phantasmagoria.

An obsessive wish to degrade Russia’s mass-media, namely #RussaTodayTV to propaganda machine of the Islamic state (IS) deprived the report of substance, because neither problems of the communication streams from Russia or from IS to the EU was properly addressed.
One could say that it would have been a regular piece of ‘brining sand to beach’ institutional work, if not unforeseen dangerous by effects.
Today the US election results  ensuring a change in the Western foreign policy is a key factor, making Fotyga’s report outdated, however it is more than about looks.
The presidential elections process in France indicated two major favorites: the Republican Francois Fillion and Front National Marine Le Pen – both declaring Russia as a natural partner of France. The inevitable upcoming change of the foreign policy course of the founding member state of the EU, will have a profound influence on the EU-Russia relations confronting the East European countries with a necessity to abandon chronic Cold War modus vivendi.
The reluctance to change attitude vis-à-vis Russia would create additional divides in relations between EU old and new member states, already existing in the issues of migration.The rejection of Poland to take fair share of migrants from Italy and Greece completed with the rejection of accepting a pragmatic approach towards Kremlin might be too much for the Union to bear: these cracks will start a tectonic shift between Eastern (Vicegrad group) and Western Europe,signifying its end of the status quo EU27+UK earlier than #Brexit happens.
Turning to a really burning issue of finding an anti-dot for the perilous ideology of Islamic state, Fotyga reports does not break through the standard kit of wooden language formula, already proven to be pretty useless in protecting youth from terrorist recruiters. Subsequently it would make sense to convey the preparation of such a report to a representative of a country having the most extensive experience with the IS recruiting victims – Belgium.
Concluding, one can propose two separate reports on effects of communications, offering IS to a Belgium politician and experts, and to a Latvian, where the biggest Russian community in Europe lives, to relay on first hand experience and advice.
However ending shameful practise of Russian non-citizens in the EU, namely in Estonia and Latvia would be at most effective promotion for the European values without any ‘counter-propaganda’ strategies to invent. It is hardly makes sense to invest money in development of virtual projects, describing wonders of Europe to the EU Russians who continue stateless existence long after the collapse of the USSR.
Finally, the simple arithmetic shows the malaise of the European politicians voting the controversial Fotyga’s report converted into a resolution: 304 MEPs for, 179 against, 208 (!) abstentions.
‘EU strategic communication to counteract propaganda against it by third parties’ drafted by MEP Fotyga passed, the toxic spilled, collateral damages to be estimated later.

 

#Trump’s triumph reflects on #EU

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#Trump’s triumph has a direct and powerful impact on Europe’s political life – the upcoming elections 2017 in the #EU key countries, namely Dutch in March and French in May. Both unsystemic candidates Geert Wilders (PvV) and Marine Le Pen (FN) have sensed that their victory as ‘anti-establishment’ politicians can be materialized within months.
Marine Le Pen early congratulations to #Trump, noticed among first from the European political class, beyond doubt are sincere, as unsystemic candidate scorned and ridiculed by the French main stream media, she recognized the fresh wind of change over political landscape.
Clearly #Trump’s victory sets an example for European electorates to encourage them to express their free will, refusing the imposed by establishment figures.
The #EU austerity policy, toppled by failed immigration policy is too much to bear for exhausted Europeans, once upon a time looking up to the #EU as ‘peace and prosperity’ project. A million of migrants from Middle East and Africa, terrorist threat from jihadis, conflicts in Eastern and Mediterranean neighbourhoods create a dramatic setting, naturally forcing the citizens to reflect about change of political elites, who are directly responsible for the poor state of affairs.
This is certainly not a cheerful news for the #EU bureaucrats, who took their luxurious existence with mega salaries and generous pensions for granted, losing feeling of reality in their cosy Brussels bubble.
The idea of endless imposition of the #EU agenda on the citizens, without their consent, and follow up games of ‘second’ referendums as it happened to Ireland, or The Netherlands, whose Prime Minister Mark Rutte seems to ignore the results of the plebiscite, choosing for Brussels political schedule. This modus operandi might come to the end in the cause of 2017 in similar way as it happened in the USA, where the electorate kept the cards close to heart.
Now it is the turn of Europeans to take the destiny in their own hands.
Est modus in rebus…