Russia 1917-2017 from “dictatorship of proletariat” to oligarchy

The rejection of registration to Alexey Navalny did not come as a surprise to him – the authorities fabricated lawsuits against the major critic of Kremlin to find a reason to block his ascendance, regarding him as a dangerous challenger of oligarchy. However the announcement brought to a conclusion a century of Russia’s development: from 1917 seizure of control over the entire Empire by left radicals led by Lenin imposing the “dictatorship of proletariat”  to 2017 Putin’s plutocracy, or “dictatorship of oligarchy” formed at collapse of Soviet Empire the end of last century.

In a way both are extremes so typical to Russian character, product of a rhythm of development from stagnation to crisis.

With the exclusion of Navalny from elections the pattern of further political development is becoming familiar: the biological change of generations. Its climax reflected in so-called epoch of “ostentatious funerals” of dying out members of Politburo, who were eager to try the crown of the fading Empire even for a few months before the end of their life, prolonged due to professionalism of Kremlin physicians. The political commentators were defining the state of play from the color of the walls behind the  leader addressing the nation, and mostly they were  grey ones from Soviet hospitals. “USSR is governed from hospital ward!” – exclaimed one of the critics of Communist party. Now a well-known scenario is awaiting Russians again.

Accustomed to changes caused by two major factors: biological and organic (hydrocarbons, or simply price of oil and gas – the backbone of Russian economy), or combination of two, as it happened during Gorbachev’s perestroika, Russians are patiently waiting for the end of the cycle, preferring stagnation to revolution. The intense search of truth in a century brought from dictatorship of proletariat to oligarchy, bypassing democracy. With vivid memories over ‘big robbery’ of Russians in the 90s, they are hardly prepared for another experiment, looking forward to a long stretch of stagnation ahead. To the winter of discontent…

 

France voting for the future

Marine Le Pen votes

France goes to the polls on Sunday for the first round of a dramatically polarized presidential election, crucial to the future of the European Union, and the destiny of the continent.

Nearly 47 million voters will choose between a pro-EU centrist newcomer breaking away from the incumbent Socialist government, a scandal-ridden veteran conservative eager to slash public spending, while accused in indulging himself in public funds spending for private gains, a far-left eurosceptic, exercising a classic repertoire to blame all the misery of the world to the rich, or France’s first woman president, promising a U-turn from globalism to nation-state.

The  latest polls indicated the two major contestants: Emmanuel Macron et Marine Le Pen, with a real battle promised at the second round of elections, while struggling to attract the electorate of the other candidates, fallen out of the race.

The rivary for the crown of the French ‘elected king/queen’ will be for the senior electorate, increasingly numerous in aging France. Remarkably seniors vote more than average,  and subsequently are over-represented among voters. The attraction of the older generation of the voters, who are characterized by specific political choices, will become a real challenge for both Le Pen and Macron. However it would not be easy for the latter, as the senior citizens have an inclination to vote a conservative political programme, and are closer to traditional values.

So far Marine Le Pen showed more understanding for the needs of the senior citizens; on the strong side of Macron  is contact with the youth, and diasporats/ immigration, especially from Muslim countries, who see in him a solid ally.

However any chosen candidate will face the  need to conquer the parliament –  Assemblée National, and the mega-challenge of dealing with French syndicates – powerful trade-unions, who keep under control economic development in the country, and the endeavours of  presidents, irrespective their political convictions.

NL: Wilders enters election race

geert-wilder-2de-kamer

Today  Dutch leader of  Party for Freedom (PVV) Geert Wilders launches his election campaign, based on protection of European values, intention to ban Muslim mass migration, and close all the mosques in the Netherlands as entities incompatible with democracy and human rights, especially gender equality. Married to a Hungarian diplomat, Wilders is a consequent defender of women’s rights, and new age multiculturalism, based on shared values, and respect of democracy, and of rule of law. Wilders, being a half-Indonisian, never opposed an immigration as such, neither immigrants, who were settling in the Netherlands in different epochs, creating unique hubs of Amsterdam and Rotterdam, but specifically against Muslim mass migration leading to deterioration of security, steep rise of violent crime, and other well-known problems.

As the result of mass migration, the degradation of public life in one of the most liberal modern societies,  reflected also on political culture – the  extra security measures will be implied  to protect Wilders, obliged  to live under special protection programme after the 2004 assassination of  Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh, who criticised an ongoing abuse of women in Islam, and was killed in day light by a religious fanatic.

“I want us in government,” Wilders said. “The Netherland for the Netherlanders!” is the motto for his elections campaign running towards the 15th of March – the day citizens will be going to ballot-boxes. Lately polls showed Wilders popularity stabilized on the same level as incumbent Prime Minister iberal Mark Rutte (liberal). Dutch system of creating coalition in the Parliament, will not allow Wilders to become next Prime Minister, even if he wins the popular vote. However in case of victory, his influence on political and public life will grow substantially to impact the other political forces.

#Trump’s triumph reflects on #EU

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#Trump’s triumph has a direct and powerful impact on Europe’s political life – the upcoming elections 2017 in the #EU key countries, namely Dutch in March and French in May. Both unsystemic candidates Geert Wilders (PvV) and Marine Le Pen (FN) have sensed that their victory as ‘anti-establishment’ politicians can be materialized within months.
Marine Le Pen early congratulations to #Trump, noticed among first from the European political class, beyond doubt are sincere, as unsystemic candidate scorned and ridiculed by the French main stream media, she recognized the fresh wind of change over political landscape.
Clearly #Trump’s victory sets an example for European electorates to encourage them to express their free will, refusing the imposed by establishment figures.
The #EU austerity policy, toppled by failed immigration policy is too much to bear for exhausted Europeans, once upon a time looking up to the #EU as ‘peace and prosperity’ project. A million of migrants from Middle East and Africa, terrorist threat from jihadis, conflicts in Eastern and Mediterranean neighbourhoods create a dramatic setting, naturally forcing the citizens to reflect about change of political elites, who are directly responsible for the poor state of affairs.
This is certainly not a cheerful news for the #EU bureaucrats, who took their luxurious existence with mega salaries and generous pensions for granted, losing feeling of reality in their cosy Brussels bubble.
The idea of endless imposition of the #EU agenda on the citizens, without their consent, and follow up games of ‘second’ referendums as it happened to Ireland, or The Netherlands, whose Prime Minister Mark Rutte seems to ignore the results of the plebiscite, choosing for Brussels political schedule. This modus operandi might come to the end in the cause of 2017 in similar way as it happened in the USA, where the electorate kept the cards close to heart.
Now it is the turn of Europeans to take the destiny in their own hands.
Est modus in rebus…

#Parliament: #Brexit winning time

uk-parliament

Strategically the decision of High Court to turn to #Parliament for a debate on #Brexit is to advantage for the #UK negotiations with the #EU, going through a profound political transformation during 2017.

From Dutch general elections in March to French presidential elections in May, and German federal elections foreseen in September/October clearly a new composition of political forces will shape European trends.
Irrespective of the victory of the ‘new patriots’ or souverenists /nationalist parties, the whole spectrum of political thinking is shifting to the right, leaving Socialists aside, and launching competition between center right and right-right (souvrenists).
Even the departure of the Socialist French president Francois Hollande as such will have a positive impact on #Brexit talks, because any other but Socialist leader will represent a flexible partner at negotiating table.
The dramatic growth of criminality in Europe might also encourage Dutch voter to search for protection in face of Geert’s Wilders Party for Freedom (PVV), whose ascendancy to power will mean #Nexit referendum in The Netherlands.
The major changes are awaiting Germany, whose population can not continue to pretend that migration policy of the ruling party represent any interest for them.
On contrary, the publication of statistics on crime raise has come as an evidence of correct predictions of Alternative for Germany (AfG), whose presence on political landscape is becoming more sound every day.
Resuming, one can guess, that the High Court is acting in the best interest of the #UK giving them time and space to depart from the EU with the best possible deal, opening new chapter of their relations with the continental Europe.
 
Tempore sedere semper sapientis est habitum🙂