Tag: France

Fillon liberates the way to Le Pen

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Photo: illustration Francois and Penelope Fillon in better days
When Mr.Fillion was singing a lavish allowance to his wife from a public fund he couldn’t have guessed what an effect his misplaced generosity would have on the cause of European history. If before #PenelopeGate the majority of French were sure Fillon is their next president, after the scandal the wheel of fortune definitely moved away from him. The downfall of the front-runner gave to Marine Le Pen’s chances to become next president of the V Republic, changing her candidate status from ‘probable’ to ‘highly probable’. The ascendancy of Front National leader to Élysée Palace will certainly initiate the fundamental reshaping of the European project, so much feared by the keepers of EU dogma.

The sudden “misfortune” in the form of preliminary investigation in the prosecutor’s office that brutally changed the fate of the front-runner of the French presidential elections Francois Fillon, recasts the whole of political performance just a couple of month before the J-Day.

Many observers point out that French electorate is quite used to a fact of public fund abuse and flourishing nepotism in the political cast, so they can not be surprised by one more scandal, because they have seen so many. However this time there is a particular case because while generously filling the family budget from the public funds, Mr.Fillon called for austerity policy for his compatriots – the hypocrisy that destroyed his reputation forever.
The jungle of politics follows its laws, scavenging on what is over from Fillon’s reputation, the public opinion is upgrading in ranks Front National Marine Le Pen, and a newcomer – semi-Socialist Emmanuel Macron, from now onwards two most probable candidates to confront in the second round of elections.
If before the #PenelopeGate the battle between Fillon and Macron was considered to be difficult to latter because of lack to the governing experience, the competition with Marcon profiles Le Pen to her advantage. As a career politician she is heavy-weight next to Macron-banker, and short time finance minister of the most unpopular president of the V Republic. Not the best of the references so far. However his very recent political record would not encourage many to experiment with Mr.Macron as a president of the country, already hugely disappointed in the management of his Socialist boss.

#Hollande: bows out

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The decision of French President Francois Holland to give up the contest for the second mandate is everything but a good news for the European Union, indicating profound crisis of Socialist ideology unable to deliver prosperity to French citizens.

The so-called European values, especially cult of Socialist’s ‘solidarity’ meaning opening purse of taxpayers of wealthy EU-members to new member-states will inevitably come to an ordeal with a new French presidency, shifting to the right.
The unprecedented move is caused by an exceptionally low popularity of Holland, sometimes reduced to 7% of respondents, supporting his policies. The current state of affairs suggests the shift of the mainstream policy to the right, indicating Francois Fillion, Les Republicains, centre-right and Marine Le Pen, Front National, right* (*deriving from far-right party of her father Jean-Marie Le Pen) as the favorites of the second round of the presidential elecitons in May 2017.
If Marine is openly declaring a referendum of the EU membership as a part of her presidential campaign, the centre-right candidate Filllon does not mince his words about a need of a reform of the EU, although not questioning his country’s membership. He also criticized the position of Hollande accusing him of giving up to Germany’s Angela Merkel, in spite of the diverging interests.
Fillion also calls for a ‘new Schengen’, with real border guard, pointing at EU’s failure to protect its frontiers.
With Socialists abandoning the summit of French politics, the European Union will face a necessity to reform and adjust to new requests of a founding member run by right-wing, less interested to patch differences in name of ‘solidarity’, more flaunting its national identity.
The departure of President Hollande co insides with end of term of another high ranking European Socialist – European Parliament’s president Martin Schulz, serving his second mandate against all the odds and rules of the institution, previously practicing rotating presidency every two and a half years.His decision to refuse the third term was also appreciated by many, especially those who thought that it was unfair to break the rule to get the second term.
Altogether, the ‘winter of Socialism’ is not an unexpected political climate change – the French failed presidency of Holland only confirmed the status quo, concluding the public sentiment, and announcing upcoming change in political trends on the continent.
Caesar non supra grammaticos!

#Fotyga: propaganda toxic substance

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fotyga-ep

The MEP Anna Fotyga’s report on ”Russian and Islamist propaganda” debated in European Parliament is one of the most surrealistic documents produced by an assembly in modern history. Even from a first glance it looks exotic resembling a hybrid of a Nile crocodile and a red-tailored hawk – a monster from Middle Ages artist Jeroen Bosch paintings of Hell.

Certainly it is reflecting a personal animosity of Ms Fotyga – a former Polish #Kaczyński Foreign affairs minister – towards Kremlin, degrading Russian mass media undertakings to Islamic state information warfare against the West.

One can question a rational behind the choice of the rapporteur who has not been able to abandon Cold War modality in 25 years after the fall of Berlin Wall,
confusing Russia with the USSR, as if still an existing entity along with the Islamic state.

Knowing the slow pace of the EU institutions one can guess that the idea of the report was conceived in a firm believe of the continuation of the US Democrat’s policy of sanctioning Russia. Within a new political situation, when president elect has declared Russia as a ‘partner’, the Fotyga’s report looks not only dramatically outdated, but also phantasmagoria.

An obsessive wish to degrade Russia’s mass-media, namely #RussaTodayTV to propaganda machine of the Islamic state (IS) deprived the report of substance, because neither problems of the communication streams from Russia or from IS to the EU was properly addressed.
One could say that it would have been a regular piece of ‘brining sand to beach’ institutional work, if not unforeseen dangerous by effects.
Today the US election results  ensuring a change in the Western foreign policy is a key factor, making Fotyga’s report outdated, however it is more than about looks.
The presidential elections process in France indicated two major favorites: the Republican Francois Fillion and Front National Marine Le Pen – both declaring Russia as a natural partner of France. The inevitable upcoming change of the foreign policy course of the founding member state of the EU, will have a profound influence on the EU-Russia relations confronting the East European countries with a necessity to abandon chronic Cold War modus vivendi.
The reluctance to change attitude vis-à-vis Russia would create additional divides in relations between EU old and new member states, already existing in the issues of migration.The rejection of Poland to take fair share of migrants from Italy and Greece completed with the rejection of accepting a pragmatic approach towards Kremlin might be too much for the Union to bear: these cracks will start a tectonic shift between Eastern (Vicegrad group) and Western Europe,signifying its end of the status quo EU27+UK earlier than #Brexit happens.
Turning to a really burning issue of finding an anti-dot for the perilous ideology of Islamic state, Fotyga reports does not break through the standard kit of wooden language formula, already proven to be pretty useless in protecting youth from terrorist recruiters. Subsequently it would make sense to convey the preparation of such a report to a representative of a country having the most extensive experience with the IS recruiting victims – Belgium.
Concluding, one can propose two separate reports on effects of communications, offering IS to a Belgium politician and experts, and to a Latvian, where the biggest Russian community in Europe lives, to relay on first hand experience and advice.
However ending shameful practise of Russian non-citizens in the EU, namely in Estonia and Latvia would be at most effective promotion for the European values without any ‘counter-propaganda’ strategies to invent. It is hardly makes sense to invest money in development of virtual projects, describing wonders of Europe to the EU Russians who continue stateless existence long after the collapse of the USSR.
Finally, the simple arithmetic shows the malaise of the European politicians voting the controversial Fotyga’s report converted into a resolution: 304 MEPs for, 179 against, 208 (!) abstentions.
‘EU strategic communication to counteract propaganda against it by third parties’ drafted by MEP Fotyga passed, the toxic spilled, collateral damages to be estimated later.

 

EU-Turkey: Adieu, membership!

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A long journey of Turkey to the European Union clearly came to a halt
– in the European Parliament’s plenary there were just a few MEPs to
suggest the accession process should continue in spite of the dramatic
developments in the candidate country after the failed coup d’état.

The overwhelming majority of the MEPs called upon freezing the
accession process started back in 1999.They reiterated rhetoric
questions about honesty in evaluating current situation in Turkey as if
fitting the Copenhagen criteria of a democratic society. The
aftermath of the coup turned into tsunami of  outrageous violations of
democratic freedoms.

One doesn’t need to refer to the Amnesty International’s annual report
for the numerous evidences of torture, violations of freedoms of
speech, unfair trials, degradation of women’s rights. The laws
offering rapists to marry the victims scandalized the world, and
arrests of politicians and journalist became a left the most ardent friends
of Turkey speechless. The Kurdish issue has been set ablaze
with arrests of the co-leaders of the HDK party.

It looks the card of the significance of the Turkey NATO membership was
overplayed by president #Erdogan to such an extend that even the most
staunch supporters of accession process were running out of
arguments.

The major fear of accession talks halt  is the galloping Islamisation
of the Turkish society, which will certainly continue even at higher
speed without the outside stimulus as the EU membership to keep the
society secular. However the accession talks didn’t proof to be
successful so far as a tool of promoting European values in
Turkey, and it make little sense to pretend that keeping accession
formally open would introduce a major change with an exception of loss
of credibility in the eyes of Turkish people, who expect solidarity
from Europeans.

The other issue which brings some hesitations over talks halt is
possibility of Turkey shifting closer to Russia, which is rather bleak
in view of ongoing Syrian conflict were positions of both countries
are difficult to aline.

There were also fears expressed that the freeze might solidify and become
permanent, meaning an end to an entire epoc of EU Enlargement policy.
These sentiments of regrets were challenged by MEP Charles Tannock (UK, ECR),
who reminded the fellow politicians that the accession of #Turkey played
a significant role in #Brexit vote. One can add that French
vote against EU Constitution (2005) was also influenced by an idea
of Turkey joining the EU.
Although overdue the move of taking distance from authoritarian Turkey,
increasingly reminiscent of the Ottoman Empire ruled by ‘Sultan’ #Erdogan,
it might still have a consolidating effect of the EU torn by multiple crisis es.
The decision to freeze the accession talks with Turkey is awaited
at the European Council in December.
End
Brussels-Strasbourg

#Trump’s triumph reflects on #EU

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#Trump’s triumph has a direct and powerful impact on Europe’s political life – the upcoming elections 2017 in the #EU key countries, namely Dutch in March and French in May. Both unsystemic candidates Geert Wilders (PvV) and Marine Le Pen (FN) have sensed that their victory as ‘anti-establishment’ politicians can be materialized within months.
Marine Le Pen early congratulations to #Trump, noticed among first from the European political class, beyond doubt are sincere, as unsystemic candidate scorned and ridiculed by the French main stream media, she recognized the fresh wind of change over political landscape.
Clearly #Trump’s victory sets an example for European electorates to encourage them to express their free will, refusing the imposed by establishment figures.
The #EU austerity policy, toppled by failed immigration policy is too much to bear for exhausted Europeans, once upon a time looking up to the #EU as ‘peace and prosperity’ project. A million of migrants from Middle East and Africa, terrorist threat from jihadis, conflicts in Eastern and Mediterranean neighbourhoods create a dramatic setting, naturally forcing the citizens to reflect about change of political elites, who are directly responsible for the poor state of affairs.
This is certainly not a cheerful news for the #EU bureaucrats, who took their luxurious existence with mega salaries and generous pensions for granted, losing feeling of reality in their cosy Brussels bubble.
The idea of endless imposition of the #EU agenda on the citizens, without their consent, and follow up games of ‘second’ referendums as it happened to Ireland, or The Netherlands, whose Prime Minister Mark Rutte seems to ignore the results of the plebiscite, choosing for Brussels political schedule. This modus operandi might come to the end in the cause of 2017 in similar way as it happened in the USA, where the electorate kept the cards close to heart.
Now it is the turn of Europeans to take the destiny in their own hands.
Est modus in rebus…

Charles Tannock, MEP interview on Libya from EP, Brussels

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Published on Oct 13, 2016 in ‘Brussels Diplomatic’

Interview with Carles Tannock ( ECR – UK ) on problems of Libya five years after Gaddafi’s assassination: playground for an international terrorism and jihad
MEP Charles Tannock – a member of Committee on Foreign Affairs of the European Parliament

#Parliament: #Brexit winning time

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Strategically the decision of High Court to turn to #Parliament for a debate on #Brexit is to advantage for the #UK negotiations with the #EU, going through a profound political transformation during 2017.

From Dutch general elections in March to French presidential elections in May, and German federal elections foreseen in September/October clearly a new composition of political forces will shape European trends.
Irrespective of the victory of the ‘new patriots’ or souverenists /nationalist parties, the whole spectrum of political thinking is shifting to the right, leaving Socialists aside, and launching competition between center right and right-right (souvrenists).
Even the departure of the Socialist French president Francois Hollande as such will have a positive impact on #Brexit talks, because any other but Socialist leader will represent a flexible partner at negotiating table.
The dramatic growth of criminality in Europe might also encourage Dutch voter to search for protection in face of Geert’s Wilders Party for Freedom (PVV), whose ascendancy to power will mean #Nexit referendum in The Netherlands.
The major changes are awaiting Germany, whose population can not continue to pretend that migration policy of the ruling party represent any interest for them.
On contrary, the publication of statistics on crime raise has come as an evidence of correct predictions of Alternative for Germany (AfG), whose presence on political landscape is becoming more sound every day.
Resuming, one can guess, that the High Court is acting in the best interest of the #UK giving them time and space to depart from the EU with the best possible deal, opening new chapter of their relations with the continental Europe.
 
Tempore sedere semper sapientis est habitum🙂

#Gaddafi’s assassination

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gaddafi-sarkoziBook review.

Massive waves of refugees and migrants fleeing ISIS ravaging failed state of Libya cause the EU grave security concern. Dabbed as ‘Afghanistan at European doorstep’ it became a den of an international terrorism and challenge to the European political leadership, once promising a quick fix to an internal conflict with help of the NATO iron fist.

Five years after the collapse of the Libyan state followed the assassination of its ultimate Guide, Colonel Gaddafi, 20/10/2011,  the solution of the conflict if more of a ‘mirge in a desert’ than a tangible political project. However experts insist that the path to reconstituting lies through an objective assessment of the past decisions, actions and strategies leading to the catastrhopie.

In ‘L’Assassinat de Kadhafi’ (in French) Belgium journalist and expert on Africa, Dominique Ugeaux (65) shares his vision on the causes of the Libya disintegration,, poining at the murder of Colonel Gaddafi’s as a fatal error, leading the chain reaciton of events beyond control of Western powers.

In five years passed after the assassination no light was casted on the abhorrent end of Muammar Gaddafi  that shocked the world confronted with the frames from videos of tortures in his last hours. Although immediately denoucnced by some high officials as a ‘war crime’ it was never properly investigated.

Insisting that this crime opened a ‘green light’ to ascendance of international jihad in Libya, and beyond, expanding to the whole of African continent, and further, tormenting the East and the West, Ugeux claims  justice for the slain Colonel for the sake of Libyans and…  Europeans, namely French, who played an imminent role in Libyan tragedy. 

Without failure Domingique Ugeux is a firm believer in international law as the universal tool of progress, and ideals making the world turn round.

Reminiscent of his father a humanist and a man of principle, who inspired him to pick up a pen, Ugeaux dives into  memories of events, and encounters month before Gaddafi’s death, evoking of his sherpa role in engaging legal defence to conoured by Western powers Colonel.

In vain, the abrupt and violent end of Gaddafi’s, shrouding his death in mystery, left efforts of legal defence of Jacques Vergés unsolicited.

However Ugeux does not accept the crime scene as an epilogue to Gaddafi’s rule: he insists on an objective investigation of political actions of responsible at power internationally – NATO, interpreting UN ‘resolution 1973’ protecting civilians, and nationally, especially addressing questions to former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, discarding African Union diplomatic achievement to convince Gaddafi to step down, while misleading public opinion in France pointing at military actions as an ultimate solution.

The role of the opinion leaders is of a special attention in the author’s narrative, revealing  the intrigues around the destruction of the Libyan leader – Ugeux blames philosopher Bernard-Henry Lévy (BHL) for de facto replacing the minister of foreign affairs, not a petty misdemeanor in a democratic country as France. While mixing into political discourse with his own perceptions, BHL initiative to engage as an activist to  travel to Tripoli meeting opposition played not the least role in Gaddafi’s tragic fate.

Raising questions to former president Sarkozy, and his loyal friend BHL on consequences of the Libyan adventure the author is not just exercising in rhetoric, but is determined to raise public awareness that only with bringing responsible of breaching laws to justice one can attempt to construct better future for Libya and for all.

Festinatio justitiae est noverca infortunii…

‘Assassinat de Kadhafi’ Dominique  Ugeux, Editions Surprendre,  2016