UK to walk away without a deal?

 

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The UK departure without a deal as a concept appears persistently in different contexts, approaching the date of the triggering Article 50, promised by Prime Minister Theresa May in March, likely before the Treaty of Rome celebrations on the 27th, but after the Dutch general elections on the 15th. The UK officials do not wish to harm the fragile ties with the EU27, and complicate the situation of one millions of compatriots, chosen the continental Europe as their home.

The hostile rhetoric of the EU high officials, especially the Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Commission, and the veteran of the EU project, made many politicians and experts to consider the departure without any settlement as a viable option, shielded by the WTO rules.

The perspective of the free-trade agreement with the US, opened after the visit of the PM May to the White House, makes ‘no deal better than a poor deal’ approach a leading trend.

Picture: US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Theresa May walking through White House gallery.

The City moves to Ireland?

dublin

Many of British-based financial services firms have already decided to relocate at least part of their operations to Ireland, and others are expected to follow in the first half of this year, Ireland’s minister for the sector said this week.

Speaking at an event hosted by the London Irish Business Society, Eoghan Murphy said Britain’s decision to trigger #Brexit at the end of March had been a catalyst for these moves.

“With the time horizon we now have around Article 50, some decisions have already been made for relocation,” Murphy said, declining to name the companies, or give a number.

Earlier this month Irish finance minister Michael Noonan confirmed Irish central bank had received over 100 inquiries from British-based financial firms considering a move.

PM May: UK surfs global

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In a comprehensive and inspirational speech Prime Minister Theresa May has sketched a framework for Brexit goals and future of the UK-EU relations. In a way she picked up a glove of those sceptics, including recently quit ambassador to EU Ivan Rogers, who were hinting the government had no plans, no clarity, and even suggested that it will take a decade to Brexit due to ‘mission impossible’.
However now there are concepts both for the post-Brexit UK surfing in the global world and relations with the EU as ‘strategic partner’, but no attempts to get anything close to membership. No Single Market, but an ambitious free trade agreement with the EU, and customs deal, ‘keeping open mind’. Indeed, no sense to start everything from a scratch.
Although May used as a refrain the suggestion of partnership  with the EU in many areas, she made it clear-cut, that no deal is better than a bad deal, which should go for endorsement by the UK Parliament in case of achievening a result.
For the EU institutions this means an additional bitter pill to swallow, because the UK departure without ‘a deal’ means not only leaving mandarins with a considerable hole in the pockets depriving of handsome British contribution to the EU budget, but a heavvy loss of workplaces related to trade and services, adding steam to Euro scepticism, already blaming EU austerity politics for sluggish economic growth.
The ‘hard’ #Brexit is on the cards, and ‘no deal’ is a real perspective in case British negotiators will be confronted with dogmatism which became a visit card of Juncher’s Commission, prescribing ‘more Europe’ as a universal remedy for all kind of problems to occur.
However it is an image of the UK ‘global’ which is the most catchy for many who aspire liberation from the EU ‘directives’ and ‘regulations’, ‘more Europe’ and ‘4freedoms’, which became inseparable like 10 commandments of Christ, without being so highly contribution to public mores, observing new realities of workers from different European member states receiving different salaries for the same job. Times of sweeping changes are coming. Who  is the next caught in the UK whirlwind of ‘global surging’?
Anna van Densky,  OPINION,  17/01/2017, Brussels
(Photo: illustration)

#Fotyga: propaganda toxic substance

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The MEP Anna Fotyga’s report on ”Russian and Islamist propaganda” debated in European Parliament is one of the most surrealistic documents produced by an assembly in modern history. Even from a first glance it looks exotic resembling a hybrid of a Nile crocodile and a red-tailored hawk – a monster from Middle Ages artist Jeroen Bosch paintings of Hell.

Certainly it is reflecting a personal animosity of Ms Fotyga – a former Polish #Kaczyński Foreign affairs minister – towards Kremlin, degrading Russian mass media undertakings to Islamic state information warfare against the West.

One can question a rational behind the choice of the rapporteur who has not been able to abandon Cold War modality in 25 years after the fall of Berlin Wall,
confusing Russia with the USSR, as if still an existing entity along with the Islamic state.

Knowing the slow pace of the EU institutions one can guess that the idea of the report was conceived in a firm believe of the continuation of the US Democrat’s policy of sanctioning Russia. Within a new political situation, when president elect has declared Russia as a ‘partner’, the Fotyga’s report looks not only dramatically outdated, but also phantasmagoria.

An obsessive wish to degrade Russia’s mass-media, namely #RussaTodayTV to propaganda machine of the Islamic state (IS) deprived the report of substance, because neither problems of the communication streams from Russia or from IS to the EU was properly addressed.
One could say that it would have been a regular piece of ‘brining sand to beach’ institutional work, if not unforeseen dangerous by effects.
Today the US election results  ensuring a change in the Western foreign policy is a key factor, making Fotyga’s report outdated, however it is more than about looks.
The presidential elections process in France indicated two major favorites: the Republican Francois Fillion and Front National Marine Le Pen – both declaring Russia as a natural partner of France. The inevitable upcoming change of the foreign policy course of the founding member state of the EU, will have a profound influence on the EU-Russia relations confronting the East European countries with a necessity to abandon chronic Cold War modus vivendi.
The reluctance to change attitude vis-à-vis Russia would create additional divides in relations between EU old and new member states, already existing in the issues of migration.The rejection of Poland to take fair share of migrants from Italy and Greece completed with the rejection of accepting a pragmatic approach towards Kremlin might be too much for the Union to bear: these cracks will start a tectonic shift between Eastern (Vicegrad group) and Western Europe,signifying its end of the status quo EU27+UK earlier than #Brexit happens.
Turning to a really burning issue of finding an anti-dot for the perilous ideology of Islamic state, Fotyga reports does not break through the standard kit of wooden language formula, already proven to be pretty useless in protecting youth from terrorist recruiters. Subsequently it would make sense to convey the preparation of such a report to a representative of a country having the most extensive experience with the IS recruiting victims – Belgium.
Concluding, one can propose two separate reports on effects of communications, offering IS to a Belgium politician and experts, and to a Latvian, where the biggest Russian community in Europe lives, to relay on first hand experience and advice.
However ending shameful practise of Russian non-citizens in the EU, namely in Estonia and Latvia would be at most effective promotion for the European values without any ‘counter-propaganda’ strategies to invent. It is hardly makes sense to invest money in development of virtual projects, describing wonders of Europe to the EU Russians who continue stateless existence long after the collapse of the USSR.
Finally, the simple arithmetic shows the malaise of the European politicians voting the controversial Fotyga’s report converted into a resolution: 304 MEPs for, 179 against, 208 (!) abstentions.
‘EU strategic communication to counteract propaganda against it by third parties’ drafted by MEP Fotyga passed, the toxic spilled, collateral damages to be estimated later.

 

EU-Turkey: Adieu, membership!

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A long journey of Turkey to the European Union clearly came to a halt
– in the European Parliament’s plenary there were just a few MEPs to
suggest the accession process should continue in spite of the dramatic
developments in the candidate country after the failed coup d’état.

The overwhelming majority of the MEPs called upon freezing the
accession process started back in 1999.They reiterated rhetoric
questions about honesty in evaluating current situation in Turkey as if
fitting the Copenhagen criteria of a democratic society. The
aftermath of the coup turned into tsunami of  outrageous violations of
democratic freedoms.

One doesn’t need to refer to the Amnesty International’s annual report
for the numerous evidences of torture, violations of freedoms of
speech, unfair trials, degradation of women’s rights. The laws
offering rapists to marry the victims scandalized the world, and
arrests of politicians and journalist became a left the most ardent friends
of Turkey speechless. The Kurdish issue has been set ablaze
with arrests of the co-leaders of the HDK party.

It looks the card of the significance of the Turkey NATO membership was
overplayed by president #Erdogan to such an extend that even the most
staunch supporters of accession process were running out of
arguments.

The major fear of accession talks halt  is the galloping Islamisation
of the Turkish society, which will certainly continue even at higher
speed without the outside stimulus as the EU membership to keep the
society secular. However the accession talks didn’t proof to be
successful so far as a tool of promoting European values in
Turkey, and it make little sense to pretend that keeping accession
formally open would introduce a major change with an exception of loss
of credibility in the eyes of Turkish people, who expect solidarity
from Europeans.

The other issue which brings some hesitations over talks halt is
possibility of Turkey shifting closer to Russia, which is rather bleak
in view of ongoing Syrian conflict were positions of both countries
are difficult to aline.

There were also fears expressed that the freeze might solidify and become
permanent, meaning an end to an entire epoc of EU Enlargement policy.
These sentiments of regrets were challenged by MEP Charles Tannock (UK, ECR),
who reminded the fellow politicians that the accession of #Turkey played
a significant role in #Brexit vote. One can add that French
vote against EU Constitution (2005) was also influenced by an idea
of Turkey joining the EU.
Although overdue the move of taking distance from authoritarian Turkey,
increasingly reminiscent of the Ottoman Empire ruled by ‘Sultan’ #Erdogan,
it might still have a consolidating effect of the EU torn by multiple crisis es.
The decision to freeze the accession talks with Turkey is awaited
at the European Council in December.
End
Brussels-Strasbourg

#Parliament: #Brexit winning time

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Strategically the decision of High Court to turn to #Parliament for a debate on #Brexit is to advantage for the #UK negotiations with the #EU, going through a profound political transformation during 2017.

From Dutch general elections in March to French presidential elections in May, and German federal elections foreseen in September/October clearly a new composition of political forces will shape European trends.
Irrespective of the victory of the ‘new patriots’ or souverenists /nationalist parties, the whole spectrum of political thinking is shifting to the right, leaving Socialists aside, and launching competition between center right and right-right (souvrenists).
Even the departure of the Socialist French president Francois Hollande as such will have a positive impact on #Brexit talks, because any other but Socialist leader will represent a flexible partner at negotiating table.
The dramatic growth of criminality in Europe might also encourage Dutch voter to search for protection in face of Geert’s Wilders Party for Freedom (PVV), whose ascendancy to power will mean #Nexit referendum in The Netherlands.
The major changes are awaiting Germany, whose population can not continue to pretend that migration policy of the ruling party represent any interest for them.
On contrary, the publication of statistics on crime raise has come as an evidence of correct predictions of Alternative for Germany (AfG), whose presence on political landscape is becoming more sound every day.
Resuming, one can guess, that the High Court is acting in the best interest of the #UK giving them time and space to depart from the EU with the best possible deal, opening new chapter of their relations with the continental Europe.
 
Tempore sedere semper sapientis est habitum🙂

#EUCO: waiting 4 MP #May

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According to EU diplomats the discussion at dinner moved towards Russia. However it is #Brexit, and Prime Minister Theresa May who attract the lion’s share of mass media attention. Hopefully she will come out for a first press conference tonight, or early morning hours to exchange with an international press corps. There is no tradition for #UK PM to held a conference after a first day of a #EU Summit, however his last visit to Brussels David Cameron changed the habit and appeared in front of press to say good buy. There is some hope in the air that PM Theresa May would not miss a chance to establish direct contact with an international press corps and will step out with her message tonigh.

Today’s May’s doorstep before enterning the meeting has been impressive: a ‘bolo punch’ to Russians, condeming air strikes in Syria. Apparently there are no air operation at the moment, however it served as a good maneuvre to switch attention from #Brexit problems to international politics challenges. One can guess that Syria’s conflict is not the most pressing issue for British political agenda, but after all political rethoric can’t be compared to a pshychiatrist’s couch, no one expects sincerity from heads of goverments:)

From Justus Lips, Consilium, Brussels, EU October Summit night

#Brexit: following Dutch elections

 

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The Article 50 timing to evoke a process of negotiations for #Brexit fixed by Prime Minister Teresa May for the end of March 2017 is suspiciously coinciding with a date of Dutch parliamentary elections announced for the ‘Ides of March’ – the 15th.

It has been a long time the UK leads as a number one destination of Dutch investors, and for Britons it is the second. However the once declared role of Dutch as a promoters of the EU for the UK is not relevant any more and the broadening gap between Eurozone and the City of London doesn’t leave an opportunity to sit in two chairs – there is time to chose. 

Previously Dutch Eurosceptic politician Geert Wilders said that he hoped for Britain to leave with a ‘knock-on” effect on his countrymen. Taking into consideration the symbiosis of the UK and The Netherlands in economy and finance, historic and cultural ties, one can agree with Wilders prediction of a considerable influence of #Breixt on the whole of the Dutch society.

Subsequently, in #Brexit aftermath Wilder’s party PvV has already enjoyed a spectacular raise in polls, reflecting growing deception  in the EU. Only 14% of Dutchmenbelieve that the EU contributed significantly  to economic growth in their country. 

Summer holiday break showed some decline in Wilder’s popularity, however it remains high enough

to cease  the majority of the seats in the Parliament. Notorious or popular, dependent on a point of view, Wilders firmly stays in the limelight of Dutch politics, and expression  ‘Prime Minister Wilders’ is becoming increasingly current in European political debate.

Choosing for a politician promising a return of national sovereignty is no more a ficiton, but reality Brussels might face in a half-a-year, subsequently #Nexit referendum might follow by the end of 2017, bringing an ally to the UK at negotiations table with the #EU.

As follows the UK timing for a start of #Brexit procedure isn’t a game of chance, but a well considered strategy, aiming at achieving the best possible deal in talks with #EU27 reduced to #EU26.

The sinister prediction of Nigel Farage for Brussels Mandarins might come true soon: the UK will be not the last country leaving the crumbling Union.

Abussus abussum invocat!

 

#NeelieKroes’ skeleton in closet

BELGIUM-EU-TECHNOLOGY-TELECOMMUNICATIONS

#NeelieKroes engagement with Bahamas offshore is even greater blow to the EU bureaucracy in crisis of confidence than #Barroso’s Goldman Sachs employment.

It looks OLAF’s Emily O’Reilly has more work to do with the former European Commission major protagonists, who are fuelling debate about European Institutions as a cupola for international lobby.
If in #Barroso’s case there is an ethical ambivalence of a political nature, and widely discussed open move, #NeelieKroes (2004-2014) revealed chairmanship of a Saudi company in Bahamans – is a secretive affair of a legal concern, a real skeleton in her closet. The ‘Panama papers’ scandal goes on…
There is hardly a personal drama for a wealthy 75 year old Dutch politician.
However the financial reprimand of former EU powerful Commissioner for Competition will not wash off the stain on the reputation of the institution she was leading together with her opportunistic boss #Barroso.
The mumbling of #Kroes about being ‘unaware’ of the directorship of the company she though was closed, will not help much to the European Commission in calamity to restore its damaged reputation.
Further, there are not only losers, but winners in the Jungle of the European power-struggle: the ‘polticial animals’ with self-inflicted injures are easy prey for stronger spices, who anxiously precipitate to feast. Subsequently, the opportunism of the #EU top civil servants will add ballots to politicians calling for national referendums on membership following the #UK #Brexit.
The pathos of the EU Commission leaders has hardly any power to convince citizens with the masterpieces of their speechwriters, contrasting with the leading bureaucrats ‘petty misdemеanors’, reflecting the real level of their ‘European convictions’.
VERBA MOVENT, EXEMPLS TRAHUNT!
 

#Bratislava Summit: Roadmap Illusion

 

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Assessing the perspectives of informal #Bratislava Summit #EU27 Roadmap one has a difficulty to see any light in the end of a tunnel. Paradoxically the first Summit of #EU27 without the #UK appeared to be tumultuous, marked by disagreements, pessimism, and blame-games between the leaders, who with astonishing frankness have drawn new dividing lines among European nations.

A symbolism of a common Roadmap requested by #Merkel can hardly mislead anyone by its highly illusionary nature within a new dynamic situation while polarizing groups of states with conflicting interests created among EU members .

While Mediterranean members complain about #Merkel’s austerity
policy, the East Europeans Vicegrad group vigorously oppose migrant open-door strategy, and its consequences for security, rejecting quota relocating system.
The Italian Prime Minister #Renzi informed press  about his criticism of German surplus trade effects, rejecting any common press-conference by the end of the Summit. The crisis of Italian banks is becoming a pressing issue, but so far the #EU hasn’t changed its austerity line,  which fired back on popularity of  #Renzi government.
The Italian PM position came on the top of the wave of Mediterranean countries discontent with Brussels and Berlin worded in “Athens declaration” (9.09.2016) after conference of so-called Club-Med countries demanding to put an end to ‘Stablitiy and Growth Pact’,  thus changing rules of eurozone, meaning the end of austerity imposed by Germany.
Rebellion of Mediterranean and East European leaders became more sound, than before #Brexit vote.
Moreover after the long pause between the #Brexit referendum and evocation of article 50 the warning of Luxembourg Foreign minister #Asselborn to suspend #Hungary from the EU for its dissent were not taken seriously as nobody knows how to carry out #Brexit, and logically one more country falling out would only adds degree of heat to the EU crisis.
Facing the rise of Euroskepticism reflected in a number of processes across Europe with Hungarian referendum on migrants, Italian referendum on Constitutional reform, German, Dutch, and French elections – the whole ensemble of events that might lead to serious reconstruction of the EU project to advantage of the nation-states, especially with ‘Prime-Minister Geert Wilders’ and ‘President Marine Le Pen’. The only way to survival will be in tempering the Eurocrat’s appetite and transferring of powers from Brussels to member-states, and сreating a flexible network for cooperation, in the other words a the notorious ‘à la carte’. The question is if Brusssls is ready for reform?..
However not everyone might be happy with these solutions, preferring organizations without foreign policy and military ambitions like EFTA, who express readiness to consider the UK membership, and might welcome some other discontent EU members.
From Bratislava Summit #EU27 in one year one might witness a birth of new alliances grown from current sub-groups of the EU: the UK and Nordic countries joining EFTA, and the fragilized EU with major subgroups of Mediterranean states, and Vicegrad group under symbolic Franco-German chairmanship.
Finally, by the 25 of March 2017 there will be a big question if there is much to celebrate after 60 years of the EU haphazard integration and galloping expansion.
By the time it might shrink back to its origins to European Economic Community (TEEC) as once it started in Rome in 1957 with slightly different list of participants
-back to square one…
De novo!