Tag: Article 50

Boris Johnson as EU antidote

Blog, EU, Europe

Anna van Densky OPINION Newly elected by the Conservatives Prime minister Boris Johnson throws a glove in the face of “the doubters, the doomsters, the gloomsters“, vowing to lead the country to the decisive Brexit on October 31. However, for fair play, he should have thanked them for their huge contribution in his swift ascendance to power, because they have created the situation of a protracted political crisis blocking the way to the implementation of the decision of the referendum.

Even more so Boris Johnson had to thank the European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, who dabbed Theresa May requests  as “nebulous“. Many thanks to the European Council for the rejection of re-editing the Withdrawal Agreement, and personally to Michel Barnier, who stood like a rock defending the each letter of the text. All of them were indispensable for Theresa May downfall.  From now onward the “moderate”, “orderly” Brexit scenario is off the shelf.

The EU has the entire record of the successfully corrected “errors” like reshaping the European Constitution into the Lisbon Treaty, and subsequent imposition of the second referendum on the Republic of Ireland, generously offering an opportunity to the citizens to chose the “right side of history“. However in this particular Brexit case the application of pressure caused the results opposite to expected: Boris Johnson came as Brussels antidote, promising to his compatriots to resolve the problem with slicing the Gordian knot. Who can do it better than a professional in Classics? 🙂

Alexander The Great

 

Europarl: Ann Widdecombe furore

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Anna van Densky OPINION The passionate speech of British MEP Ann Widdecombe had a highly unpleasant  novelty for the European Union: the doyen of Brexit party political group associated the protracted process of exiting from the EU with national liberation movement. She openly threw into face of Guy Verhofstad – the European Parliament representative for Brexit talks – the accusation of treating the UK as “colony“.

Guy Verhofstadt answered in via his Twitter micro blog, regarding Widdecombe as a “clown”. It means he failed again to understand souverainist’s influence on public opinion, and the interaction between Brexit party (former UKIP) and larger groups of electorate, initially perceived as “marginal“, but in reality numerous enough to impose Brexit referendum, and win its outcome. Verhofstadt did not answer to in a meaningful way to Widdecombe criticism of democratic deficit in EU procedures either. He also didn’t answer to her criticism of protracted withdrawal process, comparing Brussels to metropole, reluctant to give away rip on its rich colony.  However the strategy of brushing off criticism of Brexiteers is in essence myopic because it allows their vision to hover high, and spread around engaging new groups, and not only from UK electorate, but the other old EU member states.

The feeble attempt of BBC journalist to argue Ms.Widdecombe’s point of  view through pointing at her high MEP salary incomparable with “slave” status looked like faux pas.

BBC did not manage to address the issue, and attempt, dabbed by the MEP as “silly”, just re-enforcing her speech, demonstrating absence of meaningful counter-argument.

 

 

EU Brexit charade

Blog, EU, Politics

Anna van Densky from EP, Brussels. The Members of European Parliament (MEP) raise concerns about perspective of the UK remaining for upcoming European elections, being “one foot in, one foot out”, as Guy Verhofstadt (ALDE, Belgium) said.

The perspective of electing even more Brexiteers is definitely not inspiring  MEPs, open to endorse additional political declarations, if necessary, however standing firmly by the EU Commission, and Council, refusing the revision of the endorsed deal.

While the attempting to convince Westminster to endorse the deal the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker repeated the UK can have one more extension on condition of the Article 50 Agreement (Withdrawal Agreement) endorsement, and proposing clear plans of moving forward with the implementation. The prolongation of uncertainty is not an option.

The tone of the EU top executive was dead, and while he was offering more political declarations. Juncker’s  glances were gloomy, while he switched to the part of speech, describing damages to EU, and even more so to British economy if the no-deal scenario takes place by default. He admitted to read the speech first time during his intervention in Europarliament, because “every word is important“.
“If the UK is able to approve the withdrawal agreement with a viable majority by 12 April, then the European Union should accept an extension until 22 May“, Juncker concluded.

Responding to the worst fears of MEPs, Gerard Batten (UKIP, UK) called Britons to vote massively for UKIP in case the country participates in European elections in May.

 

Brexit by defalut looming

Blog, EU, Europe, Uncategorized

There are no reasons for optimism in Brussels, where the heads of states and governments are meeting for the European Union Summit on March 21-22: there is hardly anyone who believes that the Westminster will endorse Theresa May‘s Article 50 Agreement.

In absence of any changes in the text of the negotiated for two years deal itself, it is only context that changes, the perception of losses endorsing the deal, or preferring no-deal damages.However it is unlikely the MPs will change their minds, vote for the Agreement they have rejected two times already.

“On the Brexit, we need to be clear about ourselves, our British friends and our peoples. The withdrawal agreement cannot be renegotiated. In case of a British negative vote, we would go to a no-deal” explains Emmanuel Macron. At his arrival to the #EUCO the President ensured that France is ready for no-deal scenario, and will support enterprises, especially small businesses, but also fishery.

However in case the Westminster decides to accept May’s deal next week, the EU is ready to extend the Brexit deadline to 22 May, a day before the European elections vote will start. The top EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said, while arriving to the Council, that a short extension can be only “conditional”.

#Brexit: pessimism reigns in Europarl

Blog, EU, Europe, Politics, Uncategorized

Anna van Densky OPINION The European Parliament Brexit negotiator Guy VERHOFSTADT (Belgium, ALDE) cancelled his press-conference, so did his major ally – Esteban GONZALES-PONS (Spain EPP). There are no traces of optimism in the corridors of power in spite of British Prime Minister Theresa MAY the last minute spontaneous visit to Strasbourg, attempting to obtain compromises on the Article 50 Agreement.

However the legally-binding interpretations of Brexit deal will be hardly enough to convince the Westminster to accept it in tonight’s vote.

In case of voting down the Article 50 Agreement the relations between the EU and UK will be entering the uncharted waters, as Prime Minister May has stated already. The extension of the deadline (March 29) is possible in the framework of the agreed Brexit only to avoid legal vacuum. The Remainers already threaten to sue their government in the European Court (CURIA) for breaching the Article 50, which clearly describes the timetable, and does not foresee any prolongations.

Originally there were two fixed deadlines: Brexit date on March 29, and the latest date of its possible extension on May 24 (European elections), before which the UK should leave, or it is obliged to participate, according to the Treaties to ensure the right of the citizens to elect their representatives to the European Parliament. In any case the status of the incumbent MEPs could not be extended beyond July 2, when the newly elected Parliament will be constituted.

However there are very few politicians eager to model possible developments in case tonight of House of Commons will vote down the deal. It will be not only the downfall for Theresa May, and her government, but also considered as a major failure for the EU27 to secure orderly Brexit, preserving from blow economies, jobs, and citizens rights. The  failure will certainly reflect on upcoming European elections disfavoring predominant political forces, unable to preserve mutually beneficial relations with one of major European economies.

 

Pedro Sanchez Gibraltar ‘Chandelier Bid’

Blog, EU, Uncategorized

Anna van Densky  OPINION  It would be utmost naive to believe Spanish Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is eager to enter history books as a man, who derailed Article 50  deal, and destroyed the the EU27 collective effort to avoid ‘hard Brexit’ over such a ‘eternal‘ issue as Gibraltar ceded to  British crown in 1713. Even more so, the derailing of Brexit deal would be senseless facing the solid support of the leadership of territory unequivocally given to British government both by the Chief Minister and opposition.

However Spanish veto threats hanging as Damocles sword over the final draft deal to be presented for endorsement on the EU Brexit Summit just in a day is an ideal opportunity for Sanchez to raise his own stakes politically in Europe and gain a considerable capital at home, boosting his own popularity.  Virtuoso of public relations, formed in Brussels institutions, Sanchez mastered modern communication strategies and has no intention to miss an opportunity Brexit offers.

In profound need of electoral support,  Sanchez, whose ascension to power happened though elaborate parliamentary chess combination, but not the citizen’s vote, finds himself in a need of political capital,  and voters sympathies, he has been chronically missing. The struggle for Gibraltar status is a ideal subject to raise media and public attention in Spain to gain so much needed  for the Socialists popularity.

The other paramount issue is the Spain‘s shattered image within the EU over the Catalan  referendum oppression – the last minute compromise Sanchez will offer to the bloc will be undoubtedly  presented as an ultimate sacrifice on the alter of collective European good to be exchanged in the future on ‘carte blanche‘ in some sensitive issues and benefits  for Spain to obtain from Brussels.

Pedro Sanchez will definitely not bloc the EU27 Brexit deal, and destroy the fruit of Michel Barnier elaborate arrangement to be delivered at the historic EU Summit, however there is a price for Spanish generosity the Brussels will discover later when leaders gather for the final say. Meanwhile the Article 50 game of nerves will go on, reminiscent of classic ‘Chandelier Bid‘, in order to create the appearance of greater demand or to extend bidding momentum for a piece on offer – #Gibraltar, whose inhabitants have already  twice in referendums supported status quo.

This Millenium Gibraltar sovereignty referendum was held on 7 November 2002 within the British overseas territory on a proposal by London to share  the sovereignty of the territory between Spain and the United Kingdom. The result was a rejection of the proposal by a landslide majority, with only just over one per cent of the electorate in favour.

Orban: lion’s uproar

Blog, EU, Politics

Farewell l to a shy and clumsy man with blushing cheeks, –Viktor Orban, whom once president Juncker was jokingly slapping and calling  the“dictator”.

The times of jokes are over, and there are no traces of shyness left.

Vikor Orban showed his true self, answering to the adoption of the Article 7 European Parliament resolution with the lion’s uproar, reminding to the EU of a power of a democratically elected leader of a nations state.

The clash between nation and supranational construction as the European Union has never been so dramatic – it is the first time in the history of the bloc that Members of the European Parliament voted to reprimand a state for its independent policy, while Hungarians openly called the action a “revenge” for reluctance to follow the EU migration strategy opening arms to flows of illegals on humanitarian grounds.

Formally the Resolution based on Socialist MEP Judith Sargentini report accuses Hungary of disrespect and violations of human rights.

Elected upon the resistance of the Hungarians to follow
French and German model of hosting flows of illegal migrants from Africa and Middle East, Orban holds mandate from Hungarian nation
to protect “Europan Chrisitan values“, and insists that when
his country joined the club of nations nobody ever mentioned
a obligation to abandon protection of the EU outside borders,
and massively accept illegals.

Orban positioned himself a as true defender of “European values”,
unlike his opponents, who flooded Europe with descendants from
other civilizations carrying different, and often conflicting
with the modern European lifestyle views.

So far Orban didn’t react upon Nigel Farage “invitation” to follow the UK path and show back to the EU. On multiple occasions Orban underlined Hungarians are the most loyal Europeans and they sill believe in the EU, so at present they don’t consider the exit scenario.

In spite of Orban‘s intentions to ‘make peace’ with the EU, it is obvious, that the arrogance of Brussels, imposing the policy of globalists eager to flood graying Europe with cheap labor force, will inevitably push Hungarians
to the exit door, and there is no compromise possible.

The bitter irony of the situation that the EU member-state, which openly and massively abuses human rights – Spain, crushing Catalan attempts to organize independent referendum, and jailing Catalan politicians, – Spain did not receive any criticism from the European Parliament. No resolution in support of the human rights of jailed Catalan politicians has been issued so far, and nobody expects it will be in the nearest future.

However it is difficult to imagine most unsuitable time for sorting out relations with Orban, than the European Parliament election year.Imposition of illegal migrants, who in public debate already became just ‘migrants’, attempting to make Europeans forget the criminal  nature of human trafficking, continues to rise anti-EU sentiment, and pushing Hungarians away. Ceteris paribus!

 

Brexit talks in Brussels

Blog, EU, Europe, Politics

Britain’s Brexit minister David Davis vowed to “get down to work” ahead of a first full round of negotiations, however the gap between the EU27 financial claims, and the UK readiness to contribute to Europe’s purse after departure remains huge, so is the order of talks, imposed by the bloc, insisting on settling the ‘divorce’ bill first, and arranging a new framework of relations after.

The EU27 financial claims widely considered as an Apple of Discord between Brussels and the UK government, accepting to contribute beyond Brexit in some programmes, but not in a lavish ways the EU apparatchiks desire. The departure of the second net contributor leaves a huge hole in the EU27 budget, without an immediate solution how to mend it, putting many EU projects at risk.

The incumbent EU executives are also looking for the ways to conclude their mandate without having egg on their faces for shrinking activities in European project. Many experts consider that the Enlargement to the East without respect of Copenhagen criteria, and open door migration policy undermined the EU, forcing Britons to leave. There are many forecasts the UK will not be the only country eager to end its membership in the advanced democracies club, increasingly shifting away from its original concept of stability and prosperity in Europe.

Brexit day: farwell to Larry…

Blog, EU, Europe, International, Politics

Larry the cat

 

In Brussels the triggering Article 50 day is a sunny for Sir Tim Barrow, who handed the letter, for the UKIP MEPs, for all those who voted #Brexit, and quite a grim experience for those who laments the departure of the UK, venturing how to remain in the European projet without its avantgarde.

The word whispered in Brussels corridors of power is the one Nigel Farage articulates aloud: would the European project exist in two-years time? And even if it does, how far its mutation goes?.. With Marine Le Pen as a front-runner of the French elections, and Geert Wilders promise to get 300 000 signatures to launch #Nexit referendum initiative for Dutch…

Whatever the way the project goes,  the moral blow of leaving the EU by Brittons is not to be recovered: feeling unwanted by the nation of so many virtues, the European adventure loses its glam and glitter, converting the remainers  into “down-shifters” on the ruins of the great ambitions, resembling the bunch of herders on the antiquities of Ancient Rome.

It looks like Europe once again remainers failed to get together into a powerful entity, so many times desired through its history, falling apart into ‘multi-speed’ congregation, looking different directions, without a rotational axis, replaced by spindles.

Me, I just suddenly realised that the moment Sir Tim handed The Letter, that my Brussels ‘capital of Europe’ habitat has been downgraded to a provincial one, with époque d’oré bygone.

But even worse than losing  the UK financial contribution, it will be a loss of British great sense of humour. It looks like without funny #Larry’s (pictured) tweet participation I have to get used to exist in quite bland space surrounded by the functionaries, devoted keepers of the acquis communautaire with a penchant for grey,  pushing our lives into the Procrustes bed of regulations and directives…

#Anna van Densky (this is a highly personal, apolitical note without any relation to my professional activities as a political commentator:)

 

#Brexit: following Dutch elections

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juncker-rutte-cameron

The Article 50 timing to evoke a process of negotiations for #Brexit fixed by Prime Minister Teresa May for the end of March 2017 is suspiciously coinciding with a date of Dutch parliamentary elections announced for the ‘Ides of March’ – the 15th.

It has been a long time the UK leads as a number one destination of Dutch investors, and for Britons it is the second. However the once declared role of Dutch as a promoters of the EU for the UK is not relevant any more and the broadening gap between Eurozone and the City of London doesn’t leave an opportunity to sit in two chairs – there is time to chose. 

Previously Dutch Eurosceptic politician Geert Wilders said that he hoped for Britain to leave with a ‘knock-on” effect on his countrymen. Taking into consideration the symbiosis of the UK and The Netherlands in economy and finance, historic and cultural ties, one can agree with Wilders prediction of a considerable influence of #Breixt on the whole of the Dutch society.

Subsequently, in #Brexit aftermath Wilder’s party PvV has already enjoyed a spectacular raise in polls, reflecting growing deception  in the EU. Only 14% of Dutchmenbelieve that the EU contributed significantly  to economic growth in their country. 

Summer holiday break showed some decline in Wilder’s popularity, however it remains high enough

to cease  the majority of the seats in the Parliament. Notorious or popular, dependent on a point of view, Wilders firmly stays in the limelight of Dutch politics, and expression  ‘Prime Minister Wilders’ is becoming increasingly current in European political debate.

Choosing for a politician promising a return of national sovereignty is no more a ficiton, but reality Brussels might face in a half-a-year, subsequently #Nexit referendum might follow by the end of 2017, bringing an ally to the UK at negotiations table with the #EU.

As follows the UK timing for a start of #Brexit procedure isn’t a game of chance, but a well considered strategy, aiming at achieving the best possible deal in talks with #EU27 reduced to #EU26.

The sinister prediction of Nigel Farage for Brussels Mandarins might come true soon: the UK will be not the last country leaving the crumbling Union.

Abussus abussum invocat!