#Parliament: #Brexit winning time

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Strategically the decision of High Court to turn to #Parliament for a debate on #Brexit is to advantage for the #UK negotiations with the #EU, going through a profound political transformation during 2017.

From Dutch general elections in March to French presidential elections in May, and German federal elections foreseen in September/October clearly a new composition of political forces will shape European trends.
Irrespective of the victory of the ‘new patriots’ or souverenists /nationalist parties, the whole spectrum of political thinking is shifting to the right, leaving Socialists aside, and launching competition between center right and right-right (souvrenists).
Even the departure of the Socialist French president Francois Hollande as such will have a positive impact on #Brexit talks, because any other but Socialist leader will represent a flexible partner at negotiating table.
The dramatic growth of criminality in Europe might also encourage Dutch voter to search for protection in face of Geert’s Wilders Party for Freedom (PVV), whose ascendancy to power will mean #Nexit referendum in The Netherlands.
The major changes are awaiting Germany, whose population can not continue to pretend that migration policy of the ruling party represent any interest for them.
On contrary, the publication of statistics on crime raise has come as an evidence of correct predictions of Alternative for Germany (AfG), whose presence on political landscape is becoming more sound every day.
Resuming, one can guess, that the High Court is acting in the best interest of the #UK giving them time and space to depart from the EU with the best possible deal, opening new chapter of their relations with the continental Europe.
 
Tempore sedere semper sapientis est habitum🙂

#CETA: ‘bloody’ welcome 2 Trudeau

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Brussels. Schuman square. Awaiting Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for the  EU-Canada Summit, police questioned 16 protestors, who were among those who came to express their profound discontent with the signature of the EU-Canada comprehensive economic and trade agreement (CETA). Symbolizing assassination of democracy, activists pored red paint and even tried to enter the Council building.

PM Trudeau hasn’t seen the manifestation, entering from the other side of the building by a cortege of cars.
Welcomed in a family way by kisses by president Jean-Claude Juncker,  Trudeau visibly enjoyed the CETA signature, however in a fairly modest ceremony. Still number of officials jammed into a  photo over signature was slightly exaggerated almost as many as the protesters from the other side of the building:)

#EUCO: waiting 4 MP #May

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According to EU diplomats the discussion at dinner moved towards Russia. However it is #Brexit, and Prime Minister Theresa May who attract the lion’s share of mass media attention. Hopefully she will come out for a first press conference tonight, or early morning hours to exchange with an international press corps. There is no tradition for #UK PM to held a conference after a first day of a #EU Summit, however his last visit to Brussels David Cameron changed the habit and appeared in front of press to say good buy. There is some hope in the air that PM Theresa May would not miss a chance to establish direct contact with an international press corps and will step out with her message tonigh.

Today’s May’s doorstep before enterning the meeting has been impressive: a ‘bolo punch’ to Russians, condeming air strikes in Syria. Apparently there are no air operation at the moment, however it served as a good maneuvre to switch attention from #Brexit problems to international politics challenges. One can guess that Syria’s conflict is not the most pressing issue for British political agenda, but after all political rethoric can’t be compared to a pshychiatrist’s couch, no one expects sincerity from heads of goverments:)

From Justus Lips, Consilium, Brussels, EU October Summit night

#Afghanistan: financial therapy?

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Caring about freedom of Afghan women looks quite ironic amid an attempt to curb freedom of Polish pani to have a say over abortion. However the conference on Afghanistan (4-5 October) in Brussels paid special attention to the development of freedom and rights of Afghan women, and came up with ‘impressvie’ donor’s  amounts to be invested in security and economy.

The 70 countries in Brussels assembled efforts to reach €13.5bn a pledge considered as “remarkable” by Commissioner on development Neven Mimica.
In return Afghan President Ashraf Ghani confirmed the intention to fight corruption and strengthen human rights, however he pointed at international support as a crucial element for the development of the country.
At present the situation doesn’t look as optimistic as desired: Taliban continues to ravage the country, causing population to fee in huge numbers. Europe is counting Afghans as the second community after Syrians to quie for asylum.
Supposedly this multi billion injection into Afghan security and economy would change the situation for better.
Meanwhile a couple kilometers from the European headquarters decorated by red carpet two Brussels policemen became victims to a terrorist attack of Hicham D (43), who served in Belgium army until 2009, and had ties with Islamic State fighters. Apparently he wasn’t poor, neither discriminated, nevertheless he preferred jihad to European lifestyle, and prosperity. Worth mentioning Belgium social security services have been never sparing money on Muslim community, paradoxically becoming the leader in #jihad fighters, aiming to Syria. Taking into consideration Belgium experience one can conclude impossibility to establish relation between living standards and jihad: the latter imposes poverty, but doesn’t descend from it.
Contra factum non est argumentum!

#Brexit: following Dutch elections

 

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The Article 50 timing to evoke a process of negotiations for #Brexit fixed by Prime Minister Teresa May for the end of March 2017 is suspiciously coinciding with a date of Dutch parliamentary elections announced for the ‘Ides of March’ – the 15th.

It has been a long time the UK leads as a number one destination of Dutch investors, and for Britons it is the second. However the once declared role of Dutch as a promoters of the EU for the UK is not relevant any more and the broadening gap between Eurozone and the City of London doesn’t leave an opportunity to sit in two chairs – there is time to chose. 

Previously Dutch Eurosceptic politician Geert Wilders said that he hoped for Britain to leave with a ‘knock-on” effect on his countrymen. Taking into consideration the symbiosis of the UK and The Netherlands in economy and finance, historic and cultural ties, one can agree with Wilders prediction of a considerable influence of #Breixt on the whole of the Dutch society.

Subsequently, in #Brexit aftermath Wilder’s party PvV has already enjoyed a spectacular raise in polls, reflecting growing deception  in the EU. Only 14% of Dutchmenbelieve that the EU contributed significantly  to economic growth in their country. 

Summer holiday break showed some decline in Wilder’s popularity, however it remains high enough

to cease  the majority of the seats in the Parliament. Notorious or popular, dependent on a point of view, Wilders firmly stays in the limelight of Dutch politics, and expression  ‘Prime Minister Wilders’ is becoming increasingly current in European political debate.

Choosing for a politician promising a return of national sovereignty is no more a ficiton, but reality Brussels might face in a half-a-year, subsequently #Nexit referendum might follow by the end of 2017, bringing an ally to the UK at negotiations table with the #EU.

As follows the UK timing for a start of #Brexit procedure isn’t a game of chance, but a well considered strategy, aiming at achieving the best possible deal in talks with #EU27 reduced to #EU26.

The sinister prediction of Nigel Farage for Brussels Mandarins might come true soon: the UK will be not the last country leaving the crumbling Union.

Abussus abussum invocat!

 

#Gaddafi’s assassination

gaddafi-sarkoziBook review.

Massive waves of refugees and migrants fleeing ISIS ravaging failed state of Libya cause the EU grave security concern. Dabbed as ‘Afghanistan at European doorstep’ it became a den of an international terrorism and challenge to the European political leadership, once promising a quick fix to an internal conflict with help of the NATO iron fist.

Five years after the collapse of the Libyan state followed the assassination of its ultimate Guide, Colonel Gaddafi, 20/10/2011,  the solution of the conflict if more of a ‘mirge in a desert’ than a tangible political project. However experts insist that the path to reconstituting lies through an objective assessment of the past decisions, actions and strategies leading to the catastrhopie.

In ‘L’Assassinat de Kadhafi’ (in French) Belgium journalist and expert on Africa, Dominique Ugeaux (65) shares his vision on the causes of the Libya disintegration,, poining at the murder of Colonel Gaddafi’s as a fatal error, leading the chain reaciton of events beyond control of Western powers.

In five years passed after the assassination no light was casted on the abhorrent end of Muammar Gaddafi  that shocked the world confronted with the frames from videos of tortures in his last hours. Although immediately denoucnced by some high officials as a ‘war crime’ it was never properly investigated.

Insisting that this crime opened a ‘green light’ to ascendance of international jihad in Libya, and beyond, expanding to the whole of African continent, and further, tormenting the East and the West, Ugeux claims  justice for the slain Colonel for the sake of Libyans and…  Europeans, namely French, who played an imminent role in Libyan tragedy. 

Without failure Domingique Ugeux is a firm believer in international law as the universal tool of progress, and ideals making the world turn round.

Reminiscent of his father a humanist and a man of principle, who inspired him to pick up a pen, Ugeaux dives into  memories of events, and encounters month before Gaddafi’s death, evoking of his sherpa role in engaging legal defence to conoured by Western powers Colonel.

In vain, the abrupt and violent end of Gaddafi’s, shrouding his death in mystery, left efforts of legal defence of Jacques Vergés unsolicited.

However Ugeux does not accept the crime scene as an epilogue to Gaddafi’s rule: he insists on an objective investigation of political actions of responsible at power internationally – NATO, interpreting UN ‘resolution 1973’ protecting civilians, and nationally, especially addressing questions to former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, discarding African Union diplomatic achievement to convince Gaddafi to step down, while misleading public opinion in France pointing at military actions as an ultimate solution.

The role of the opinion leaders is of a special attention in the author’s narrative, revealing  the intrigues around the destruction of the Libyan leader – Ugeux blames philosopher Bernard-Henry Lévy (BHL) for de facto replacing the minister of foreign affairs, not a petty misdemeanor in a democratic country as France. While mixing into political discourse with his own perceptions, BHL initiative to engage as an activist to  travel to Tripoli meeting opposition played not the least role in Gaddafi’s tragic fate.

Raising questions to former president Sarkozy, and his loyal friend BHL on consequences of the Libyan adventure the author is not just exercising in rhetoric, but is determined to raise public awareness that only with bringing responsible of breaching laws to justice one can attempt to construct better future for Libya and for all.

Festinatio justitiae est noverca infortunii…

‘Assassinat de Kadhafi’ Dominique  Ugeux, Editions Surprendre,  2016

#NeelieKroes’ skeleton in closet

BELGIUM-EU-TECHNOLOGY-TELECOMMUNICATIONS

#NeelieKroes engagement with Bahamas offshore is even greater blow to the EU bureaucracy in crisis of confidence than #Barroso’s Goldman Sachs employment.

It looks OLAF’s Emily O’Reilly has more work to do with the former European Commission major protagonists, who are fuelling debate about European Institutions as a cupola for international lobby.
If in #Barroso’s case there is an ethical ambivalence of a political nature, and widely discussed open move, #NeelieKroes (2004-2014) revealed chairmanship of a Saudi company in Bahamans – is a secretive affair of a legal concern, a real skeleton in her closet. The ‘Panama papers’ scandal goes on…
There is hardly a personal drama for a wealthy 75 year old Dutch politician.
However the financial reprimand of former EU powerful Commissioner for Competition will not wash off the stain on the reputation of the institution she was leading together with her opportunistic boss #Barroso.
The mumbling of #Kroes about being ‘unaware’ of the directorship of the company she though was closed, will not help much to the European Commission in calamity to restore its damaged reputation.
Further, there are not only losers, but winners in the Jungle of the European power-struggle: the ‘polticial animals’ with self-inflicted injures are easy prey for stronger spices, who anxiously precipitate to feast. Subsequently, the opportunism of the #EU top civil servants will add ballots to politicians calling for national referendums on membership following the #UK #Brexit.
The pathos of the EU Commission leaders has hardly any power to convince citizens with the masterpieces of their speechwriters, contrasting with the leading bureaucrats ‘petty misdemеanors’, reflecting the real level of their ‘European convictions’.
VERBA MOVENT, EXEMPLS TRAHUNT!
 

#Bratislava Summit: Roadmap Illusion

 

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Assessing the perspectives of informal #Bratislava Summit #EU27 Roadmap one has a difficulty to see any light in the end of a tunnel. Paradoxically the first Summit of #EU27 without the #UK appeared to be tumultuous, marked by disagreements, pessimism, and blame-games between the leaders, who with astonishing frankness have drawn new dividing lines among European nations.

A symbolism of a common Roadmap requested by #Merkel can hardly mislead anyone by its highly illusionary nature within a new dynamic situation while polarizing groups of states with conflicting interests created among EU members .

While Mediterranean members complain about #Merkel’s austerity
policy, the East Europeans Vicegrad group vigorously oppose migrant open-door strategy, and its consequences for security, rejecting quota relocating system.
The Italian Prime Minister #Renzi informed press  about his criticism of German surplus trade effects, rejecting any common press-conference by the end of the Summit. The crisis of Italian banks is becoming a pressing issue, but so far the #EU hasn’t changed its austerity line,  which fired back on popularity of  #Renzi government.
The Italian PM position came on the top of the wave of Mediterranean countries discontent with Brussels and Berlin worded in “Athens declaration” (9.09.2016) after conference of so-called Club-Med countries demanding to put an end to ‘Stablitiy and Growth Pact’,  thus changing rules of eurozone, meaning the end of austerity imposed by Germany.
Rebellion of Mediterranean and East European leaders became more sound, than before #Brexit vote.
Moreover after the long pause between the #Brexit referendum and evocation of article 50 the warning of Luxembourg Foreign minister #Asselborn to suspend #Hungary from the EU for its dissent were not taken seriously as nobody knows how to carry out #Brexit, and logically one more country falling out would only adds degree of heat to the EU crisis.
Facing the rise of Euroskepticism reflected in a number of processes across Europe with Hungarian referendum on migrants, Italian referendum on Constitutional reform, German, Dutch, and French elections – the whole ensemble of events that might lead to serious reconstruction of the EU project to advantage of the nation-states, especially with ‘Prime-Minister Geert Wilders’ and ‘President Marine Le Pen’. The only way to survival will be in tempering the Eurocrat’s appetite and transferring of powers from Brussels to member-states, and сreating a flexible network for cooperation, in the other words a the notorious ‘à la carte’. The question is if Brusssls is ready for reform?..
However not everyone might be happy with these solutions, preferring organizations without foreign policy and military ambitions like EFTA, who express readiness to consider the UK membership, and might welcome some other discontent EU members.
From Bratislava Summit #EU27 in one year one might witness a birth of new alliances grown from current sub-groups of the EU: the UK and Nordic countries joining EFTA, and the fragilized EU with major subgroups of Mediterranean states, and Vicegrad group under symbolic Franco-German chairmanship.
Finally, by the 25 of March 2017 there will be a big question if there is much to celebrate after 60 years of the EU haphazard integration and galloping expansion.
By the time it might shrink back to its origins to European Economic Community (TEEC) as once it started in Rome in 1957 with slightly different list of participants
-back to square one…
De novo!

#SOTEU: Plaudite!

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The State of the Union speech (#SOTEU) of president Jean-Claude Juncker resembled himself – pale, drained out of energy, contrasting with  confronting him triumphant Euro skeptics Nighel Farage and Syed Kamall.  Behalf of the entirely new context there was hardly anything new to the usual mantra of ‘more-more-more EU’ as if it can be a magic remedy to a project in decay.

The decision to sideline #Brexit, and go on with “business as usual” was mission impossible: the feeling of contagious effect was in the air. The MEPs expressed concerns about further decomposition of the project  under Dutch ‘Prime-Minister Wilders’, and French ‘President Marine Le Pen’. The latter immediately declared her intention to offer #Frexit referendum.
However the challenge to #Juncker was coming not only from the ascending right, but form the far left – Gabi Zimmer (GUE/NGL), who loathed #Barroso’s career Resurrection at Goldman Sachs, damaging the image of the institution beyond repair in confirmation that Brussels serves  the interests of powerful international lobby, but not regular Europeans.
Promising ‘growth and jobs’,  Barroso in reality secured only his own job oversees next to his lucrative pension. His ethically doubtful move casted a long shadow on his successor’s credibility, already questioned by the Luxleaks affair – Juncker had his own skeletons in closet, while criticizing in #SOTEU Apple company for tax evasion in Ireland.
Further #Juncker’s wishes to play a role in global politics, namely in Syria, were no more than fancy dreams – without the UK as member of the UN Security Council and head of Common Wealth –  the EU weight internationally would be substantially reduced. The same for HR Mogherini role in foreign policy: before acquiring an international renommé she should become a ‘Prophet in her own land’ – Europe, where two leading EU member-states Germany and France launched Minsk talks without her in attempt to correct the catastrophic consequences of the EU Enlargement policy.
Fortunately, the EU had no army of its own to interfere in Ukrainian conflict, but Juncker this time declared his ambition to establish one. The debate around EU defence is not new, even Mogherini’s job name reflects this original idea  of the founding fathers of ‘The United States of Europe’ – representing Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, but the second part of the activity never came into reality, except of a few haphazard missions.
Réne Pleven plan (1950) of European Defence Community (EDC) singed two years later but not fulfilled in more than half-a-century can hardly be acknowledged as innovative, but in a different context without UK – too loyal to US to consider such a ‘heresy’ – it might have more chances to be realized to some extend with the support of states as Germany, Hungary and Czech Republic.
The immigration as the core issue, that according to PM Cameron played a crucial role in #Brexit vote, haven’t seen much of a change in #SOTEU – the solidarity principle applied indiscriminately remains the dogmatic universal tool of Brussels without major modification. A few drawbacks on imposing quotas on countries, unwilling to accept migrants, can’t be considered as a new political line, but rather a necrology to failed attempts to force East Europeans to pay the bill for the US failed policies in Africa and Middle East.
#SOTEU Acta est fabula, plaudite! 

#Verhofstadt: #Brexit sherpa

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Unlike  the UKIP and Conservatives in the European Parliament (EP) suggest, Liberal group leader and former Belgium PM Guy Verhofstadt is not such a terrible choice as pictured in outburst of emotions over his appointment as the EP #Brexit negotiator.

The passion for European federalism, often described as fanaticism by his political opponents will not distract such an ambitious politician as Verhofstadt (63) from making a success story out of his role in #Brexit negotiations to profit from a reputation of a diplomat, starring at international stage for years to come.
Highly ambitious and energetic, Flemish intellectual from awesome city of Ghent
– Verhofstadt will hardly seek for savage Bérézina-style performance chasing Brittons away from the continent.
In first place such a cruel plan will backfire the EU economies, which is not in interest of any politician dreaming of further European integration, secondly the failure will end his own career. Although at age of retirement by the end of the Europarl term, Verhofstadt might look for a higher post in the European Commission, as the word in corridors of power has been spread already for some time. In this case the moderation is a must, as no one will be eager to see a fanatic in a position of the EU leadership.
Those who were booing Verhofstadt did not take into account the simple truth that political speeches are not confessions, neither psychoanalyst coach, – the tone might change as soon as required for a new role of a negotiator.
Although myopic, Verhofstadt if far from being blind Samson crushing the adversaries at cost of his own existence. For a Liberal politician drive it would be more attractive to gain a reputation of Orpheus taming a Lion (British in this case, of course :)).
Ubi concordia – ibi victoria!