Tag: Theresa May

II Brexit referendum as gambling addicion

Blog, EU

Anna van Densky, OPINION

A hint of a possibility of II Brexit referendum made by one of the most prominent Leave EU campaigners, the Member of the European Parliament, Nigel Farage made headlines worldwide, however the possibility  of the second plebiscite is just hypothetical.

Any genuine public vote has element of risk, and Prime minister Theresa May knows it from her own experience of nearly lost snap elections, reportedly ill-advised by European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker. She was aiming at confirming her authority in leading nation through Brexit, her stated reason was to strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations, but she achieved a poor result of losing majority, facing perspective of ‘hung’ parliament.

After the snap elections unexpected failure May would hardly try her luck the second time calling for referendum on Brexit, gambling her political future. In case LeaveEU wins the second referendum, May as a figure of a compromise, and a former ‘Remainer’ won’t be able to keep a grip on power, and the Brexit hardliners would sweep away May’ government – a blend of ‘moderate’ Brexiteers (read ‘converted Remainers’) like Prime Minister herself, and genuine Brexiteers receiving ministerial portfolios in exchange of toning down.

The II Brexit referendum is not only a ‘Russian roulette’ for Theresa May, and her government, but even more so for the EU. If one recalls the experience of the II Irish referendum, as a model of  a clever managing an exercise of ‘direct democracy’, one forgets that in Irish case there was no alternative. The Republic of Ireland was the only member state to hold a referendum on Lisbon Treaty, and without second referendum the situation could not move on for the entire EU block, unlike the case of Brexit led by PM May, who has already accepted lion’s share of Brussels claims.

The gambling risks are not affordable for the EU in decline, struggling against rapidly rising Eurosceptic parties. The moral damages can be dramatic, however the financial could be devastating . Till now for PM May offered the EU a generous ‘allowance’, and transition period with unclear end date. In case of the II ‘yes’ to Brexit vote, the ‘hardliners’ will not leave a penny to Brussels bureaucrats, neither will they take the “poisonous pill’ of Brexit deal.  In short, the addiction to gambling may invite catastrophe for both the EU as a fragilized block and the UK incumbent Government. Above it all, Theresa May as a Remainer heading Brexit is too precious interlocutor for the EU to risk to lose.

Ne quid nimis 🙂

 

Florence speech as Renaissance Fata Morgana

Blog, EU

Anna van Densky, OPINION

Public speeches of politicians are not confessions,
even less can they be compared to an experience on
a couch of a psychoanalyst, and Britons can only hope
that the Florence speech of PM Theresa May
was a public relations moment, and not a roadmap
for #Brexit.
Even at first glance once can notice that the aims
of president of the EU executive body – European Commission –
Jean-Claude Juncker are opposite to May’s wish to achieve ‘Renaissance’
in a framework of a renewed partnership between
the UK and the reduced to 27 members bloc.

In his September state of the Union speech Juncker clearly
formulated the goals: a full-forward to the United States of Europe,
with mentioning Brexit in a sinister wow the UK would “regret” the
decision to leave the bloc soon. The intention to enshrine Brexit
as a negative example forever has been the only concept circulating
in Brussels corridors of power, where the EU diplomats
in ‘confidential’ talks would hint on only possible future
of London, and it was not a splendor of Florence,

but as declining Venice (or fall of Venice)Venice decline the inevitable poor fate of the rebellious  against Brussels bureaucracy Britons.

May’s calls for Renaissance are also utopia because of the United Kingdom
post-Brexit prosperity will set a precedent and give an example to many others, namely the old members of the EU to leave the block, reestablishing sovereignty – the ‘heresy’ leading to collapse of the United States of Europe project.

Certainly, the proposal to pay fee beyond Brexit May made is attractive
to the EU federal state architects, however it does not exclude
their profound concern with the post-Brexit success of the Leavers.
The best scenario for the EU would be to continue to accept the UK fee,
and diminish its political influence, meanwhile imposing ‘four freedoms’ dogma.
So Britons would obey Brussels, pay for the construction of the EU superstate, preserving de facto four freedoms, including the reception of migrants,
but without a political presentation in the EU intuitions.

A “wonderful woman” as president Trump rightfully characterised May for her many virtues,  has been already once lured into a trap by president Juncker, reportedly
convincing her to declare the snap elections she lost.
Calls for Renaissance in relentless search for compromise to satisfy the EU quenching thirst for power and finance, will certainly please Brussels,
happy to find in May a Remainer leading Brexit.
But do Britons need a head of government, bowing to Brussels in Brexit talks?

Henry VIII

Imagine Henry VIII proposing to Pope:
‘Look, we don’t believe you are an apostolic successor to Saint Peter, you holding the keys to Haven, etc, – so I will become the head of Church in my country, but
we continue to pay you for two more years according to previous obligations,
and then we create a new equal-footed
partnership for mutual benefit and prosperity.
Please, let’s go for Renaissance together!”

Would the pontiff accept it?
Ha-ha:)

Pope FB

Failed Mogherini’s bit of trolling May

Blog, Politics

It looks the EU top diplomat Federcia Mohgerini’s attempt to troll the UK Prime Minister May failed – there will be no ‘hung’ Parliament in the UK, and #Brexit talks will start in 10 days as foreseen due to the alliance between the Conservatives and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), joining with 10 MPs. Apparently the heavy-weight in politics May is not an easy target even for mega-trolls:)

However it would be better for the EU executives to restrain from the trolling PM May in the future, because on contrary to Brussels, leaving without the Article 50 deal has a lot of political benefits for the Conservatives, delivering  the desirable STOP of paying Brussels all at once. The departure of the  UK being a second net contributor with full membership fee of £17.8 billion (the deduction of the Thacher’s rebate reduces it to £12.9 billion),  or £35 million a day, – this departure leaves the EU without an answer how to mend the giant hole in the pocket.

The chances of Conservatives oping for #hardBrexit in alliance with DUP loom large, envisaging the scenario of the UK leaving Brussels ‘elite’ insolvent, and immobilized to move forward their ultimate target of ‘more Europe.’

May to review counter-terrorism

Blog, Europe, Uncategorized, World

Prime minister Theresa May said the UK’s counter-terrorism strategy would be reviewed. The announcement was made in the wake of the terrorist attack on London Bridge  where a van hit pedestrians at about 22:00 BST on Saturday, 3.06.2017, and immediately after the three assailants got out from the vehicle and went on stabbing people in nearby Borough Market.  The toll: 7 dead and 48 injured.

The prime minister said “it is time to say enough is enough” as she condemned a terror attack on “innocent and unarmed civilians” which left seven people dead and 48 injured in London.

Treaty of Rome: balance sheet

EU, Europe, International, Politics

 

Signature of the Treaty of RomeNext month the EU leaders will gather in Italian capital , 26/01/2017,  to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. However, in view of the UK imminent departure, and multiple crises the EU project suffers, one does  not expect any opulent festivities. The situation is aggravated by the banking crisis in Italy, considering the departure from the eurozone, and exhausted by invasion of illegal migrants from Africa.

According to the EU officials a new document expected to be signed by 27 EU leaders, committing them to a new concept for the bloc, without the UK. There is also some concern, or even fear of the UK government to trigger the #Brexit  article 50 the very same day to overshadow the symbolism of the date.

Initially anticipated as a huge celebration, the event will be reduced to a sober political meeting without red carpets and fireworks. No flamboyant declarations or promises will be made, awaiting the results of French elections in May with Marine Le Pen of Front National leading in polls, promising her electorate a referendum on the EU membership of France in six month after the ascendance to power.

UK to walk away without a deal?

Africa, Asia, Conflict, EU, Europe, Human rights, International, Lifestyle, NATO, Politics, Uncategorized, World

 

trump-and-may

The UK departure without a deal as a concept appears persistently in different contexts, approaching the date of the triggering Article 50, promised by Prime Minister Theresa May in March, likely before the Treaty of Rome celebrations on the 27th, but after the Dutch general elections on the 15th. The UK officials do not wish to harm the fragile ties with the EU27, and complicate the situation of one millions of compatriots, chosen the continental Europe as their home.

The hostile rhetoric of the EU high officials, especially the Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Commission, and the veteran of the EU project, made many politicians and experts to consider the departure without any settlement as a viable option, shielded by the WTO rules.

The perspective of the free-trade agreement with the US, opened after the visit of the PM May to the White House, makes ‘no deal better than a poor deal’ approach a leading trend.

Picture: US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Theresa May walking through White House gallery.

MEPs ire over Trump’s ban

Uncategorized

 

nigerians

Unlike Nigel Farage, I don’t think the MEPs are hypocrites being outraged about President Trump’s #terroristban, no they are not, they are a bunch of genuinely frustrated people sensing the very basement of their well-being is shaken.

It was easy to navigate in good weather, in old good days, when resources were plentiful, and nobody expected any decisiveness from the European Parliament – a champion of consensus.
However new realities demand adequate decisions: the security issues had to be addressed yesterday, before the terroristic acts in Paris, Brussels, Nice and Berlin. Moreover the Europeans are not able to host, or to provide for 850 Africans eager to immigrate to the continent of peace and prosperity, the true Eldorado with generous social security benefits, housing and medical care. One should admit there is no single prosperous democratic state in Africa, even in South Africa corruption is a ‘thief stealing the dream’.
Huge territories over the Afriacn continent ravaged by conflicts, mainly those on religious grounds, daily produce thousands of refugees streaming to the North, to Libyan coast to try their chance to cross the Mediterranean to find their European ‘Eldorado’.
On contrary to what the Left politicians try to convey to us, the microscopic number of migrants is going to get an employment. As one prominent European political concluded, the most refugees and migrants arriving are ‘uneducated, religiously blinded, fanatical and impossible to integrate’. Nowadays, Europeans bring here ‘such Neanderthals’ who had been extinct on the European continent (thanks God!), – the remarks caused ire of the Left, unable to see any flows in their potential electorate, gratefully voting for generations for their saviors and generous providers.
However it is not from the purse of the political care-takers the bill on mass-migration is footed, amounting in millions of asylum-claims per year. It is the dissolving European middle class who is burdened to an extend it can hardly make the ends meet. The UK PM Theresa May called middle class families with children ‘new poor’, with only half of them living in home of their own, according to a survey.
But the European left – the Socialists and the Greens, do not really care about Middle class, seen as a decadent bourgeoisie, the Left is busy importing their own electorate at mass scale to ensure their own warm place in the politics for generations to come.
The European left and even centre-right genuinely despises President Trump, who broke a steriotype, setting an example of a leader who cares about his own citizens first, unlike the European mainstream political cast, busy with transferring as many poor from the Third World as possible to sponsor their family growth as much as possible to break the model of nation-state with a cultural identity, and to move effortlessly towards federal Europe, ‘The United States of Europe’, one big market for consumers, without any particular moral concept, just with a burning desire to acquire. Looks like Mr.Soros dream to me:)
Here the EU left meets the liberals: both need mass-migration to realise their majestic plans, however none of them to a benefit of the ‘aboriginal’ Europeans.
(Photo: illustration)

PM May: UK surfs global

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SAM_5363.JPG
In a comprehensive and inspirational speech Prime Minister Theresa May has sketched a framework for Brexit goals and future of the UK-EU relations. In a way she picked up a glove of those sceptics, including recently quit ambassador to EU Ivan Rogers, who were hinting the government had no plans, no clarity, and even suggested that it will take a decade to Brexit due to ‘mission impossible’.
However now there are concepts both for the post-Brexit UK surfing in the global world and relations with the EU as ‘strategic partner’, but no attempts to get anything close to membership. No Single Market, but an ambitious free trade agreement with the EU, and customs deal, ‘keeping open mind’. Indeed, no sense to start everything from a scratch.
Although May used as a refrain the suggestion of partnership  with the EU in many areas, she made it clear-cut, that no deal is better than a bad deal, which should go for endorsement by the UK Parliament in case of achievening a result.
For the EU institutions this means an additional bitter pill to swallow, because the UK departure without ‘a deal’ means not only leaving mandarins with a considerable hole in the pockets depriving of handsome British contribution to the EU budget, but a heavvy loss of workplaces related to trade and services, adding steam to Euro scepticism, already blaming EU austerity politics for sluggish economic growth.
The ‘hard’ #Brexit is on the cards, and ‘no deal’ is a real perspective in case British negotiators will be confronted with dogmatism which became a visit card of Juncher’s Commission, prescribing ‘more Europe’ as a universal remedy for all kind of problems to occur.
However it is an image of the UK ‘global’ which is the most catchy for many who aspire liberation from the EU ‘directives’ and ‘regulations’, ‘more Europe’ and ‘4freedoms’, which became inseparable like 10 commandments of Christ, without being so highly contribution to public mores, observing new realities of workers from different European member states receiving different salaries for the same job. Times of sweeping changes are coming. Who  is the next caught in the UK whirlwind of ‘global surging’?
Anna van Densky,  OPINION,  17/01/2017, Brussels
(Photo: illustration)

Sir Rogers: adieu to ‘belle époque’

Uncategorized

sam_3924

The stepping down of the UK’s ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers continues a ‘natural’ process of  replacement of Eurocentrics by Europscpetics, namely ‘remainers’ for ‘brexiters’. If in times of his appointment in 2013 the enthusiasm for common European future was an asset,  as much as along  the ‘StrongerIn’ campaign,  in post-Brexit vote period it is a handicap. The times are changing, but not everyone is ready to change with times, some prefer to keep their personal integrity, speaking their ‘truth’ to those at power. Their choice should be respected.

But the ‘remainers’- poor losers they are – hurried to use to political ends the personal decision of ambassador, instead of accepting it as a part of a logical renewal. The type of a damaging for the common interest frenzy as both the UK and EU27 need pragmatic approach to diminish the emotional element and to implement the will of British people in a constructive way without lyrics and laments.
With a pinch of English humor in a Swiftian style, Sir Rogers hinted on an “exiting” year in Brussels ahead of his stuff, the experience he has no intention to share. However he kindly leaves some guidelines formally to his staff, but in reality to his bosses in London, the element many ‘remainers’ hurried to present as a ‘blow’ to the PM Theresa May. In vain. It is not ‘indecisive’ government, it is a EU project on the crossroads.
From the first lines Rogers admits the need to form a stable and devoted new team to follow the process from evocation of Article 50 through the negotiations to the end.
He also advises the replacement of his deputy to create an entirely new leadership for the diplomatic crew to engage fully in the future negotiations as one team.
Complaining about absence of clarity for Brexit negotiation objectives, the same time Rogers looks beyond his Brussels ‘situ’ to acknowledge the fact of changing political environment the UK is facing while departing from the project.  Indeed, the UK government has no crystal ball to guess the outcome of the multiple elections taking place in EU27 in 2017. The national elections that might create a political environment  from ‘favorable’ to ‘fair’ for Brexit negotiators. Why hurry to push the Article 50 button?..
Sir Rogers departs in a firm belive that the future of his country depends on skills of technocrats, negotiating every detail in trade agreements, but the history shows that the future is sculptured by multiple factors, among which the political will has a prior place. Europeans have witnessed a whirlwind of changes since the collapse of the fall of Berlin Wall, reminding that treaties can be abandoned not only by negotiations but also under clausual rebus sic stantibus,   or because of  a total change of the context.
The European institutions employees made us think that the threads for the future are in eurocrat’s hands. One of the evaporating myth of  ‘la belle époque’ of the EU, that will never come back, because its beauty and glamour touched just a few, and made unhappy too many.

#EUCO: waiting 4 MP #May

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sam_5291

According to EU diplomats the discussion at dinner moved towards Russia. However it is #Brexit, and Prime Minister Theresa May who attract the lion’s share of mass media attention. Hopefully she will come out for a first press conference tonight, or early morning hours to exchange with an international press corps. There is no tradition for #UK PM to held a conference after a first day of a #EU Summit, however his last visit to Brussels David Cameron changed the habit and appeared in front of press to say good buy. There is some hope in the air that PM Theresa May would not miss a chance to establish direct contact with an international press corps and will step out with her message tonigh.

Today’s May’s doorstep before enterning the meeting has been impressive: a ‘bolo punch’ to Russians, condeming air strikes in Syria. Apparently there are no air operation at the moment, however it served as a good maneuvre to switch attention from #Brexit problems to international politics challenges. One can guess that Syria’s conflict is not the most pressing issue for British political agenda, but after all political rethoric can’t be compared to a pshychiatrist’s couch, no one expects sincerity from heads of goverments:)

From Justus Lips, Consilium, Brussels, EU October Summit night